中国石化新闻网讯 据OE网站2月12日报道，能源部门正在经历转型，越来越注重清洁能源和技术，以减少温室气体排放，促进更可持续的未来。在这种情况下，氢气正在能源转型中发挥重要作用，各种清洁生产方法在市场上具有不同的优势和竞争力。
在GECF第7版《全球天然气展望》框架内开发的“加速能源脱碳情景”(AEDS)的最新结果为氢作为能源载体的未来提供了有价值的见解。AEDS的结果表明，氢有潜力在满足未来能源需求方面发挥重要作用。AEDS预测，到2050年，氢需求将达到5.5亿吨，占总能源结构的近10%。这种对氢的高需求反映了它作为能量载体的兼容性，但也强调了对清洁和更高效的制氢手段的需求。
到2050年，利用可再生能源电解水生产的绿色氢产量预计将达48%，为2.7亿吨。这种水平的产量将需要大量的电力，估计为12000太瓦时。这相当于目前世界年发电量的43%，或者是目前风能和太阳能发电量的四倍，或者是亚洲大国和美国目前总发电量的总和。
此外，由于更高的电力需求和能源部门电气化等脱碳途径，到2050年，AEDS对太阳能和风能可再生发电的总年需求量预计将达到46000太瓦时。这一巨大的可再生能源需求量是目前风力和太阳能发电量的12倍多，约为3600太瓦时。由于需要如此大量的可再生能源，因此必须考虑从其他可用的、有竞争力的和成熟的方法（如基于天然气的蓝氢）生产大量氢气。
AEDS预计，到2050年，利用天然气和碳捕获与储存技术(CCS)生产的氢气将约为2.2亿吨，占总产量的40%。到2050年，这种水平的氢气生产将需要超过9300亿立方米的天然气。到2050年，使用CCS的煤炭气化预计将贡献约10%的氢气产量，即5400万吨氢气。
这些不同制氢方法的成本竞争力是影响其市场渗透和采用的关键因素。蓝色和绿色氢气的成本取决于几个因素，如地点、生产方法和生产规模。
目前，蓝氢比绿氢更具成本竞争力，因为它利用了现有的天然气基础设施和CCS技术。蓝氢的平均成本估计约为每千克氢1.5美元-3美元，而绿氢的成本更高，为每千克3美元-6美元。
然而，随着可再生能源变得越来越便宜和广泛，绿色氢有望提高其成本竞争力，并获得较大的市场份额。到2030年，绿色氢的生产成本预计将下降约50%，与目前的蓝色氢成本相比具有竞争力。另一方面，随着CCS技术的改进和更广泛的应用，蓝色氢也有望变得更便宜。据估计，到2050年，绿色氢的成本将与蓝色氢的成本相似，这两种选择都可以广泛应用于各个行业。
需要注意的是，能源转型不是一刀切的解决方案，各种清洁制氢方法是满足未来能源需求的必要条件。在这方面，AEDS承认考虑所有清洁氢气生产方法的重要性。
总之，氢是能源转型中的一个关键因素，它提供了一种清洁和多用途的能源，可以在减少温室气体排放和促进更可持续的未来方面发挥重要作用。AEDS的结果强调了在未来能源组合中考虑所有清洁氢生产方法的重要性，包括蓝氢和绿氢。这些不同制氢方法的成本竞争力将是影响其市场渗透和采用的关键因素。能源转型可能涉及根据特定能源需求和环境定制的清洁氢生产方法的组合。
郝芬 译自 OE
原文如下：
Blue Hydrogen: A Key Player in the Future of Energy Transition
The energy sector is undergoing a transformation, with a growing focus>The recent results of the Accelerated Energy Decarbonization Scenario (AEDS), developed within the framework of the 7th edition of the GECF Global Gas Outlook, provide valuable insights into the future of hydrogen as an energy vector. The results of the AEDS indicate that hydrogen has the potential to play a major role in meeting future energy needs. The AEDS projects that hydrogen demand could reach 550 million tons (mt) by 2050, making up nearly 10% of the total energy mix. This high demand for hydrogen reflects its compatibility as an energy vector, but also highlights the need for clean and more efficient means of hydrogen production.
Green hydrogen produced through the electrolysis of water using renewable power is expected to gain 48% of the output by 2050, with 270 mt of production. This level of production will require a huge amount of electricity, estimated at 12,000 terawatt hour (TWh). This is equivalent to 43% of the current world annual electricity generation, or four times the current electricity generation from wind and solar, or the total current electricity generation in the biggest country of Asia and the U.S. combined.
Moreover, there will be a massive total requirement for renewable electricity generation forecasted at 46,000 TWh annually from solar and wind in AEDS by 2050 due to higher electricity needs and decarbonisation pathways such as electrification of the energy sectors. This massive amount of renewable power demand is more than 12 times higher than the current generation from wind and solar at around 3,600 TWh. The need for such a large amount of renewable power makes it imperative to consider a large share of hydrogen production from other available, competitive and mature methods, such as natural gas-based blue hydrogen.
The AEDS expects that around 220 mt of hydrogen will be generated using natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS), accounting for 40% of total output by 2050. This level of hydrogen production will require more than 930 billion cubic meters of natural gas by 2050. Coal gasification with CCS is expected to contribute to around 10% or 54 mt of hydrogen production by 2050.
The cost competitiveness of these different hydrogen production methods is a key factor that will influence their market penetration and adoption. The cost of blue and green hydrogen varies depending>Currently, blue hydrogen is a more cost-competitive option than green hydrogen, as it leverages the existing natural gas infrastructure and CCS technology. Presently, the average cost of blue hydrogen is estimated to be around $1.5 to $3 per kilogram of hydrogen, while the cost of green hydrogen is higher, ranging from $3 to $6 per kilogram.
However, as renewable energy sources become cheaper and more widespread, green hydrogen is expected to enhance its cost-competitiveness and gain a large market share. The cost of green hydrogen production is expected to decrease by around 50% by 2030, making it competitive with current cost of blue hydrogen.>It is important to note that the energy transition is not a>In conclusion, hydrogen is a crucial element in the energy transition, offering a clean and versatile energy source that can play a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and contributing to a more sustainable future. The results of the AEDS highlight the importance of considering all clean hydrogen production methods, including blue hydrogen and green hydrogen, in the future energy mix. The cost competitiveness of these different hydrogen production methods will be a key factor influencing their market penetration and adoption. The energy transition will likely involve a combination of clean hydrogen production methods tailored to specific energy needs and contexts.
