摩根士丹利将2023年全球石油需求预测上调了36%，每天增加190万桶
中国经济的反弹和航空旅行需求的增加被认为是摩根士丹利这一更新的两个主要原因
摩根士丹利还指出，来自产能大国的供应强于预期，导致摩根士丹利下调了对今年下半年油价的预测
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年2月22日报道，摩根士丹利将今年全球石油需求预测上调了36%，理由是中国经济复苏以及航空旅行需求上升。
路透社援引摩根士丹利分析师的一份报告称，摩根士丹利目前预计今年全球石油需求将日增190万桶，高于此前预测的140万桶。
报告称，“中国的交通指数一直在稳步上升”，并补充说，“航班时间表已经巩固了航空燃油需求的前景”。
不过，这可能不会导致全球石油市场出现大量短缺，因为摩根士丹利预计产能大国的供应将抵消部分需求增长。
即便如此，今年下半年全球石油市场仍将出现供应短缺，布伦特原油价格将升至每桶90美元至100美元之间。这是对摩根士丹利分析师早些时候价格预测的向下修正，他们此前曾预计布伦特原油价格在今年下半年将达到每桶100美元至110美元。
他们在谈到产能大国原油产量时表示：“我们此前估计，2023年该国原油日产量将同比下降约100万桶，现在我们预计将下降40万桶。”
与此同时，高盛投资银行预测，布伦特原油价格可能要到2023年年底才能达到每桶100美元，修正了其此前对这种情况发生得更快的预期，大约在2023年中期。高盛投资银行分析师给出的修正原因是产能大国和美国原油产量增加，这可能推动市场今年出现适度过剩。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Morgan Stanley Boosts Global Oil Demand Forecast
· Morgan Stanley has raised its global oil demand forecast for 2023 by 36%, an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day.
· China’s economic rebound and increasing demand for air travel were cited as the two main reasons for the update.
· The bank also noted that supply from the bigger producer has been stronger than expected, leading it to lower its oil price predictions for the second half of the year.
Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for global oil demand for this year by 36%, citing China's economic reboot and higher demand for air travel.
The investment bank now expects oil demand this year to rise by 1.9 million bpd, up from an earlier forecast of demand growth amounting to 1.4 million bpd, Reuters reported, citing a note by Morgan Stanley analysts.
"Mobility indicators for China have been rising steadily," the note said, adding that "flight schedules have firmed-up the outlook for jet fuel demand."
This may not lead to a substantial deficit in global oil markets, however, because the bank expects the bigger producer supply to offset some of that demand.
Even so, oil markets are about to swing into a shortage in the second half of the year, pushing Brent crude prices to between $90 and $100 per barrel. This is a downward revision>"We previously estimated a ~1 mb/d year-on-year decline in 2023, which we moderate to 0.4 mb/d," they said about the bigger producer oil production.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs forecast that Brent crude may not hit $100 until the end of the year, revising earlier expectations of this happening a lot sooner, about mid-2023. The reasons for the revision that the bank's analysts cited were higher production in the bigger producer and the United States that could push the market into a moderate surplus this year.
