中国石化新闻网讯 摩根大通表示，布伦特原油价格预计不会在2023年达到每桶100美元，除非有重大地缘政治事件再次震撼市场。
摩根大通在路透社2月18日的一份报告中说，欧佩克+今年可能增加40万桶/日的供应量，产能大国的出口可能在2023年中期恢复。
华尔街银行称，产能大国原油产量预计将在6月前恢复，而高价格水平将阻止美国回购原油以重新填充战略石油储备（SPR）。
据摩根大通估计，亚洲大国的需求将增长77万桶/日——增幅低于欧佩克和国际能源署（IEA）的预测。
另一家华尔街银行高盛(Goldman Sachs)仍然预计布伦特原油今年将达到每桶100美元，但只会出现在2023年12月，而高盛早前预期油价到达100美元最快会出现在2023年中期。上周，高盛将今年的布伦特均价从每桶98美元下调至92美元。
尽管将油价预测进行了下调，高盛仍是华尔街最看好原油和大宗商品的银行之一。高盛仍然认为，一个新的超级周期正在形成。
高盛预计，亚洲大国今年的石油需求将增长110万桶/日。
2月18日早些时候，油价下跌了3%以上，上周走向基本为跌势，因为当周公布的美国经济数据向分析师和市场参与者暗示，美联储还没有完成加息进程，可能在更高水平和更长时间内收紧货币政策，以对抗仍然处于胶着状态的通货膨胀状态。
曹海斌 译自 油价网
JPMorgan: Oil Prices Are Unlikely To Hit $100 This Year
Brent Crude prices are not expected to reach $100 per barrel in 2023 unless a major geopolitical event rattles markets again, according to JPMorgan.
The OPEC+ alliance could add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to supply this year, and the bigger producer's exports could recover by the middle of 2023, JPMorgan said in a Friday note carried by Reuters.
The bigger producer crude oil production is expected to recover by June, while high price levels would prevent the U.S. from repurchasing crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), according to the Wall Street bank.
Demand will grow in the biggest country in Asia by 770,000 bpd as estimated by JPMorgan – a smaller increase than predicted by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Another Wall Street bank, Goldman Sachs, still expects Brent Crude to hit $100 per barrel this year, but>For next year, the bank sees Brent crude prices averaging $100 per barrel, down from its previous projection of an average of $105 a barrel Brent.
Despite the cut in oil price forecasts, Goldman Sachs is still>Goldman Sachs expects the biggest country in Asia ’s oil demand to grow by 1.1 million bpd this year after the reopening from Covid restrictions.
Early on Friday, oil prices were down by more than 3% and headed for a weekly loss, as this week’s U.S. economic data suggested to analysts and market participants that the Fed isn’t done with the interest rate hikes and could tighten monetary policy at higher levels and for a longer period of time to fight still sticky inflation.
