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全球石油短缺不可避免

   2021-10-28 1130
核心提示:   据美国油价网站10月27日报道,分析人士表示,自2015年石油危机以来,对石油新增供应的长期投资不足,以及石油和天然气公司

   据美国油价网站10月27日报道,分析人士表示,自2015年石油危机以来,对石油新增供应的长期投资不足,以及石油和天然气公司控制排放甚至“将其封存在地下”的压力,可能会导致全球石油产量提前达到峰值。

  如果不是因为一个简单的事实:石油需求正从疫情导致的低迷中反弹,最快将在明年创下新的年度平均纪录,这对绿色能源倡导者、净零议程和整个地球来说都将是一个备受欢迎的进展。

  能源转型和政府的各种净零排放计划促使分析人士预测,石油需求峰值将比几年前的预期更早出现。然而,作为目前油气投资趋于停滞不前, 全球石油供应可能会比全球石油需求更早达到峰值,从而造成供应缺口,这将导致石油市场波动加剧,油价飙升,并有可能在2030年前后出现结构性上涨。

  供应可能在需求之前见顶

  摩根士丹利研究部本周在路透发表的一份报告中写道:“按照目前的趋势,全球石油供应可能会比需求更早达到峰值。”

  摩根士丹利分析师表示:“地球为可以安全排放的碳量设定了边界。因此,石油消费需要见顶。”

  世界的问题在于,石油消费(一厢情愿的想法、投资者的压力等等)并没有见顶。大多数人估计,它最早也要到本世纪末才会达到峰值。

  根据欧佩克最新的年度展望,该组织预计全球石油需求将在本世纪30年代中期继续增长至1.08亿桶/天,之后将在2045年之前保持平稳。

  其他一些分析师预计,需求将在本世纪20年代末达到峰值。

  然而,对新供应的投资严重滞后于全球石油需求的增长。

  2020年疫情危机过后,需求再次增长,与2020年初的一些预期相反,世界石油消费永远不会回到疫情前的水平,目前需求距离达到并超过这些水平只有几个月的时间。

  供应缺口将在未来几年逼近

  另一方面,在欧佩克+协议范围之外,供应似乎受到限制。

  去年新增投资跌至15年低点。据著名咨询机构伍德麦肯兹今年早些时候的估计,去年全球上游投资降至3500亿美元,为15年来的最低水平。

  尽管油价高达80美元,但今年的投资预计也不会大幅增加。这是因为超级石油巨头坚持资本纪律,并承诺净零排放目标,其中一些公司计划通过限制投资和开发非核心、几乎不赚钱的新石油项目来实现这一目标。

  考虑到石油需求仍将增长,至少在未来几年内,对新增供应的投资不足将是中长期的一个主要问题。

  尽管进行了能源转型,但需求不会消失,未来几年还需要新的供应来取代不断下降的产量和储量。

  欧佩克表示,未来25年,石油行业将需要大量投资才能满足需求。欧佩克表示,到2045年,该行业将需要累计11.8万亿美元的长期上游、中游和下游石油相关投资。

  法国道达尔能源首席执行官Patrick Pouyanné本月在能源情报论坛上表示,如果石油行业停止对新增供应的投资,到2030年油价将“飙升至顶点”,一些2050年前实现净零的设想表明了这一点。Pouyanné说道:“如果我们在2020年停止投资,我们就会把所有这些资源留在地下……然后价格就会飙升。即使在发达国家,这也是一个大问题。”

  每桶100美元的油价不再是一个离谱的预测

  三位数的油价不再像2020年初那样是一个离谱的预测。

  美国银行大宗商品和衍生品研究全球主管Francisco Blanch预计,油价将在2022年9月触及100美元,如果今年冬天的气温远低于预期,油价可能会更早触及100美元。

  Blanch在9月底告诉彭博社,尽管过去18个月我们看到供应严重投资不足,但需求正在恢复。

  他说:“投资不足的问题不容易解决,与此同时,我们的需求正在飙升。”

  Blanch在接受彭博社采访时表示:“我们正进入能源紧缩时代,我们不想使用煤炭,我们想越来越少地使用天然气,我们想摆脱石油。”

  Blanch指出,尽管油价不太可能持续保持在三位数,但投资不足已经成为该行业“多年的问题”。

  即使油价不能维持在每桶100美元,然而,未来的供应紧张仍将推高油价,导致不可持续的价格飙升。尽管气候活动人士希望停止对新增供应的投资,但石油行业和世界负担不起,因为石油需求继续增长。

  曹海斌 摘译自 美国油价网

  原文如下:

  A Global Oil Shortage Is Inevitable

  Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure align="justify">  This would be a welcome development for green energy advocates, net-zero agendas, and the planet if it weren’t for align="justify">  The energy transition and the various government plans for net-zero emissions have prompted analysts to forecast that peak oil demand would occur earlier than expected just a few years ago. However, as current investment trends in oil and gas stand, global oil supply could peak sooner than global oil demand, opening a supply gap that would lead to increased volatility align="justify">  Supply Could Peak Before Demand

  “On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand,” Morgan Stanley’s research department wrote in a note this week carried by Reuters.

  “The planet puts boundaries align="justify">  The problem with the world is that oil consumption - wishful thinking, investor pressure, and all - is not peaking. Nor will it peak until the end of this decade at the earliest, according to most estimates.

  OPEC expects global oil demand to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day (bpd), after which it is set to plateau until 2045, as per the cartel’s latest annual outlook.

  Some other analysts expect peak demand at some point in the late 2020s.

  Investment in new supply, however, is severely lagging global oil demand growth.

  Demand is growing again after the 2020 COVID crisis and, contrary to some expectations from early 2020 that the world’s oil consumption would never return to pre-pandemic levels, demand is currently just a few months away from hitting and exceeding those levels.

  Supply Gap Is Looming In Just A Few Years

  Supply, align="justify">  New investment last year slumped to a decade-and-a-half low. Last year, global upstream investment sank to a 15-year low of $350 billion, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie from earlier this year.

  Investment is not expected to materially pick up this year, either, despite $80 oil. That’s because supermajors stick to capital discipline and pledge net-zero emission targets, part of which some of them plan to reach by curbing investment and developments in non-core little-profitable new oil projects.

  U.S. shale, for its part, is not rushing this time to “drill themselves into oblivion,” as Harold Hamm said in 2017, as American producers look to finally reward shareholders after years of plowing cash flows into drilling and chasing production growth.

  Considering that oil demand will still grow, at least for a few more years, underinvestment in new supply would be a major problem in the medium and long term.

  Despite the energy transition, demand will not just vanish, and new supply will be needed for years to come to replace declining production and reserves.

  The oil industry will need massive investments over the next 25 years in order to meet demand, according to OPEC. The industry will need cumulative long-term upstream, midstream, and downstream oil-related investments of $11.8 trillion by 2045, OPEC says.

  Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at France’s TotalEnergies, said at the Energy Intelligence Forum this month that oil prices would “rocket to the roof” by 2030 if the industry were to stop investments in new supply, as some scenarios for net-zero by 2050 suggest. “If we stop investing in 2020, we leave all these resources in the ground ... and then the price will rocket to the roof. And even in developed countries, it will be a big issue,” Pouyanné said.

  $100 Oil Is No Longer An Outrageous Prediction

  A triple-digit oil price is no longer an outrageous prediction as it would have been in early 2020.

  Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, expects oil to hit $100 by September 2022, or even earlier if this winter is much colder than expected.

  Demand is coming back, while we have seen severe underinvestment in supply the last 18 months, Blanch told Bloomberg at the end of September.

  “The underinvestment problem cannot be solved easily, and at the same time we have surging demand,” he said.

  “We are moving into a straightjacket for energy, we don’t want to use coal, we want to use less and less gas, we want to move away from oil,” Blanch told Bloomberg.

  While oil is unlikely to sit at triple digits for a sustained period of time, underinvestment has become “a multi-year problem” for the industry, Blanch noted.

  Even if oil doesn’t stay at $100 a barrel, a supply crunch down the road would nevertheless move the floor under oil prices higher and lead to unsustainable price spikes. As much as climate activists want a stop to investment in new supply, the industry and the world cannot afford it because oil demand continues to grow.

 
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