据彭博新闻社2021年8月31日报道，欧佩克及其盟友预计，即使在恢复产量的同时，全球石油市场今年仍将继续吃紧，但到2022年全球石油市场将再次转为过剩。
这些将于周二提交给欧佩克联合技术委员会的数据应该会让欧佩克及其合作伙伴确信，他们能够继续推进外界普遍预期的10月份增产计划。
数据显示，在今年剩余时间里，即使欧佩克+继续达成每月40万桶石油的增产协议，全球燃料库存仍将继续下降。 未来四个月，全球燃料库存将以平均每天82.5万桶的速度减少。
但这些数字显示，由于沙特阿拉伯及其合作伙伴逐渐扭转去年帮助拯救全球石油行业的减产计划，他们2022年将面临新的挑战。 预计从明年1月起，市场将恢复供过于求，并在2022年全年保持供过于求。
据一位知情人士透露，明年全球日均供大于求将达到250万桶，导致库存增加9.13亿桶。
这个预测假设欧佩克+组织将恢复目前仍处于停产状态的近600万桶/天的全部产量，但由于许多国家可能难以实现全部目标，因此，这是一项不太可能实现的壮举。
李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社
原文如下：
OPEC+ Sees 2021 Oil Deficit and 2022 Surplus
OPEC and its allies expect global oil markets will continue to tighten this year even as they revive output, but then flip into surplus again in 2022.
The data -- to be presented to the group’s Joint Technical Committee align="justify"> Fuel stockpiles will continue to decline during the rest of this year even as OPEC+ proceeds with its agreement to add 400,000 barrels a day each month, the data indicates. World inventories will diminish at an average rate of 825,000 barrels a day over the next four months.
But the numbers reveal a fresh challenge for Saudi Arabia and its partners in 2022, as they gradually reverse output cuts that helped rescue the global oil industry last year. Markets are projected to tip back into surplus from January and remain oversupplied throughout 2022.
World supply will exceed demand by an average of 2.5 million barrels a day next year, causing inventories to grow by 913 million barrels, according to a person familiar with the data.
The projections assume the group will restore all of the almost 6 million barrels a day of output that remains offline -- an unlikely feat as many countries may struggle to reach their full targets.
