据油价网2021年8月18日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)周三表示，由于产量增幅低于预期，欧佩克今年下半年的石油总产量料比此前预估低60万桶/天。
与7月份的STEO相比，EIA在8月的短期能源展望(STEO)报告中下调了其对欧佩克产量的估计。 7月，美国政府预计，为了满足全球需求，欧佩克的增产幅度将超过该组织最终同意的增产幅度。
由于下调了欧佩克的石油产量预期，EIA也下调了其对全球石油总产量的预测。 EIA目前预计2021年下半年全球石油的平均日产量为9890万桶，低于7月STEO预测的9940万桶。
EIA表示：“我们预计大多数欧佩克国家将在今年下半年完全遵守协议。”EIA预计欧佩克今年第二季度的平均石油日产量为3300万桶。
EIA预计，今年第三季度和第四季度，欧佩克的原油产量仍将低于对欧佩克的要求。 本季度，欧佩克石油需求将超过产量100万桶/天。 然而，这一差距将在第四季度下降到30万桶/天。
EIA周二表示：“从2022年第一季度开始，我们预计欧佩克原油产量将超过外界对其产量的预期，这将导致原油库存增加，原油价格下跌。”一天后，美国政府敦促欧佩克+打开水龙头。
EIA表示：“欧佩克+领导人预计将于今年12月再次开会，届时他们的削减计划将有所调整。”
尽管政府呼吁欧佩克+提高产量超过计划，但主要石油预测人士上周降低了他们对市场将需要多少欧佩克+原油的预期。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
EIA Cuts Forecast For OPEC’s Oil Production This Year
OPEC’s total petroleum production in the second half of this year is now set to be 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) lower than previous forecasts because of lower-than-expected ramp-up in output, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said align="justify"> The EIA revised down its estimate for OPEC’s production in the August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) compared to the July STEO. Last month, the U.S. administration expected that OPEC would raise production by more than the group ultimately agreed to in order to meet global demand.
As a result of the lowered estimate of OPEC’s oil production, the EIA also revised down its forecast for total world petroleum production. It now sees it at an average of 98.9 million bpd in the second half of 2021, down from a forecast of 99.4 million b/d in the July STEO.
“We expect most OPEC countries will fully comply with the agreement during 2H21,” the EIA said as it expects the cartel’s output to average 33.0 million bpd in H2 2021.
The EIA estimated that OPEC’s crude oil production would remain lower than calls align="justify"> “[B]eginning in 1Q22, we forecast OPEC crude oil production will outpace calls align="justify"> “OPEC+ leaders are expected to reconvene in December 2021, when we expect some adjustments to their curtailment plan,” the EIA said.
Despite calls from the Biden Administration for OPEC+ to boost production more than planned, the major oil forecasters scaled back last week their outlook on how much OPEC+ crude the market would need.
