据今日油价8月18日报道，尽管面临石油需求峰值的威胁，全球也在大力减少碳排放，但圭亚那-苏里南盆地正受到石油巨头的极大关注。据美国地质调查局(U.S. Geological Survey)计算，该盆地平均有152亿桶原油、23亿桶液化天然气和42万亿立方英尺天然气的未探明资源。这些数据加上埃克森美孚在圭亚那近海Stabroek区块的巨大勘探成功，即发现了21个高质量的石油，突显出这可能是最后一次获得如此巨大的油气发现。
圭亚那-苏里南盆地潜力巨大，美国地质调查局承诺在2019年底重新评估其油气潜力，但由于疫情而推迟。虽然圭亚那处于南美洲最火热的海上石油热潮的中心，但在石油盆地的苏里南一侧，情况继续升温。Apache和合作伙伴道达尔在苏里南58区块取得了巨大成功。自2020年1月以来，这两家合作伙伴在58区块均持有50%的股份，TotalEnergies是该区块的运营商。随后，在2021年7月下旬，在对靠近Sapakara West发现的58区块进行评估钻井时，道达尔又发现了Sapakara South-1井。
这一最新发现使苏里南海上58个区块的发现总数增至5个。58区块与高产的Stabroek区块相邻，并且位于同一条原油航道上，这意味着在不久的将来可能会有更多的石油发现。当Sapakara South -1井完成后，Maersk Valiant钻井船将向北移动约45公里进行Bonboni勘探。
发现的原油均是重质的，API在27 ~ 45之间。这些特征以及埃克森美孚的Liza原油等级(API 32，硫含量为0.58%)的分析表明，该盆地的石油资源是较轻质的。这一点值得注意，因为由于更严格的燃料排放规定和后巴黎气候协议推动全球经济脱碳，对低硫、中轻质原油的需求正在稳步增长。这些事件表明，大型石油公司不愿投资碳密集型石油项目。这些作业涉及开采含硫重质原油和超重质原油，这些原油的提取和提炼是碳密集型的。
不过，道达尔仍将继续在苏里南海上58号区块进行勘探和开发钻井，一些分析师认为该区块的石油储量可能高达65亿桶。除了瞄准Bonboni的钻井前景外，Apache还计划在2021年底前对Sapakara South-1井进行流动测试。2020年12月，埃克森与50%的合作伙伴Petronas在苏里南52区块海上Sloanea-1勘探井发现了油气资源。该区块位于58区块以北，据信也位于邻近圭亚那Stabroek海上区块发现的石油航道上。
除了在58区块发现的原油等级的吸引力，估计一旦获得发现就将投产，苏里南海上的平均盈亏价格将达到40美元/桶。虽然这一价格高于圭亚那近海Stabroek区块Liza Phase 1目前的35美元，但这是南美洲最低的价格之一，随着基础设施的建立，价格应该会下降。位于帕拉马里博的苏里南国家政府决心成为该地区主要的石油生产国。作为战略的一部分，国家石油公司和行业监管机构statatsolie在去年11月启动了2020-2021年浅水近海项目招标。2021年6月下旬，statatsolie授予了三个浅水近海区块;5号区块被美国能源巨头雪佛龙公司收购，而6号和8号区块则被一个由道达尔(40%)、Staatsolie(40%)和卡塔尔石油(20%)组成的财团收购。
苏里南的浅水区块位于58区块的南部，其地质构造与已经发现的深水区块相似。再加上20世纪80年代钻探过程中发现的未充分开发的区块和油气资源，这些都表明这些区块具有发现原油的潜力。
Paramaribo决心成为该地区主要的石油生产商，据该公司预测，苏里南海上已发现的可采石油资源至少有19亿桶。行业咨询公司Rystad Energy预计，到2030年，苏里南的原油日产量将达到65万桶左右。根据statatsolie与Apache、道达尔、埃克森美孚和马来西亚国家石油公司签署的产量共享协议，statatsolie拥有20%的份额。有利的监管环境、低特许权使用费、具有竞争力的盈亏平衡价格以及日益增强的政治稳定性，都使苏里南成为外国能源公司的一个有吸引力的目的地。尽管面临石油需求高峰的威胁，苏里南正在成为拉丁美洲下一个石油大繁荣地。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Is This South America’s Last Great Oil Boom?
The Guyana-Suriname basin is gaining considerable attention from big oil despite the threat of peak oil demand and global push to significantly reduce carbon emissions. The U.S. Geological Survey calculated that the basin had mean undiscovered resources of 15.2 billion barrels of crude oil, 2.3 billion barrels of natural gas liquids and 42 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Those numbers along with ExxonMobil’s exceptional exploration success in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana, with 21 high-quality oil discoveries, highlight the considerable hydrocarbon potential of what could be the last major offshore oil boom. The considerable potential of the Guyana-Suriname basin saw the USGS commit to reassessing its hydrocarbon potential in late-2019 but that was delayed by the pandemic.
While Guyana is at the heart of what is emerging as South America’s hottest offshore oil boom, things continue to heat up align="justify"> That latest discovery brings the total number of discoveries in offshore Suriname Block 58 to five. Block 58 is adjacent to the prolific Stabroek block and is situated align="justify"> The crude oil found is described as high quality with API gravities of 27 to 45 degrees. Those characteristics and the assay for Exxon’s Liza crude oil grade, which has an API gravity of 32 degrees and 0.58% sulfur content, indicate that the basin’s petroleum resources are light and relatively sweet. That is important to note because demand for sweet medium and light crude oil is expanding at a solid clip because of stricter fuel emission regulations and the push to decarbonize the global economy in a post-Paris climate accord world. Those events see big oil shying away from investing in carbon-intensive petroleum projects. It is those operations that involve the exploitation of sour heavy and extra-heavy crude oil grades that are carbon-intensive to extract and refine.
TotalEnergies, however, is committed to continuing its exploration and development drilling in Block 58 offshore Suriname, which some analysts believe could hold up to 6.5 billion barrels of oil. Aside from targeting the Bonboni prospect for drilling the energy supermajor and partner Apache plan to conduct flow testing of the Sapakara South-1 well before the end of 2021. Exxon with 50% partner Petronas, which is the operator, discovered hydrocarbons with the Sloanea-1 exploration well in offshore Suriname Block 52 during December 2020. That block is to the north of Block 58 and also believed to be align="justify"> Aside from the attractiveness of the crude oil grades found in Block 58, it is estimated that offshore Suriname will have an average breakeven price of $40 per barrel align="justify"> Suriname’s shallow-water blocks are to the south of Block 58 and contain similar geology to the deep-water blocks where discoveries have been made. This along with the blocks being underexplored and hydrocarbons being found during drilling in the 1980s points to their being the potential for crude oil discoveries.
Paramaribo is determined to become a major regional oil producer with it predicted that offshore Suriname holding at least 1.9 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources for the discoveries made to date. Blocks 58 and 52 are expected to commence production sometime this decade with industry consultancy Rystad Energy anticipating that Suriname will be pumping around 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day by 2030. Staatsolie has a 20% participation right under the production sharing agreements signed with Apache, TotalEnergies, Exxon, and Petronas. A favorable regulatory environment including low royalties, competitive breakeven prices, and increased political stability all make Suriname an attractive destination for foreign energy companies. Regardless of the threat of peak oil demand, Suriname is shaping up as the next big oil boom in Latin America.
