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高盛:2021年第三季度油价将达到75美元

   2021-02-24 3050
核心提示:据今日油价2月23日报道,高盛(Goldman Sachs)现在对油价的看法更为乐观,预计布伦特(Brent)原油价格将在今年第三季度达到每桶75

据今日油价2月23日报道,高盛(Goldman Sachs)现在对油价的看法更为乐观,预计布伦特(Brent)原油价格将在今年第三季度达到每桶75美元,原因是市场再平衡速度加快、预期石油库存下降,以及交易员对冲通胀风险。

Forexlive援引该投行分析师周日的一份报告预测,布兰特原油价格将在今年第二季度达到每桶70美元,第三季将达到每桶75美元。高盛将第二季度和第三季度的预测上调每桶10美元。

高盛表示:“由于欧佩克+产量的增加低于我们普遍预期的需求复苏预期,在预计将是冬季黑暗时期的快速重新平衡之后,今年春季的供应缺口将扩大。”

分析师指出:"我们相信,当前为迎接通货再膨胀环境而进行的重新调整,将支撑此次额外的升势。投资者转向石油,购买滞后的实物资产,这些资产受益于刺激经济措施推动的复苏,并显示出无与伦比的对冲通胀冲击的能力。"

高盛预计,库存减少将导致油价更快、更达幅度的反弹。周一早盘,布伦特原油价格上涨2%,报每桶64.18美元,WTI原油价格再次突破每桶60美元大关口,上涨2.6%,报每桶60.78美元。

本月初,高盛在一份报告中对石油市场发出了另一个利好消息,称预计今年8月前全球石油需求将恢复至疫情前的每日1亿桶水平。

根据高盛的数据,2020年第四季度石油市场的供应缺口为230万桶。由于2021年初的供应仍然紧张,尽管预期需求复苏缓慢,但近期价格前景光明。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下:

Goldman Sachs Sees $75 Oil In Q3 2021

Goldman Sachs is now even more bullish In a note “Faster re-balancing during what was expected to be the dark days of winter will be followed by a widening deficit this spring as the ramp-up in OPEC+ production lags our above-consensus demand recovery forecast,” said Goldman Sachs.

“We further believe that this additional rally will be supported by the current repositioning for a reflationary environment with investors turning to oil, buying a lagging real asset that benefits from a stimulus-driven recovery and has demonstrated an unmatched ability to hedge against inflation shocks,” the analysts noted.

Goldman expects the lower inventories will lead to an oil price rally sooner and at higher price levels.

On Monday morning, Brent Crude prices were up by 2 percent at $64.18 at 9:54 a.m. ET, while WTI Crude again moved above the $60 per barrel mark, having risen 2.6 percent at $60.78.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs had another bullish message for oil markets, saying in a note that it expected global oil demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd by August this year.

According to Goldman, the oil market was in a deficit of 2.3 million bpd in the final quarter of 2020. With supply still tight at the start of 2021, the immediate future for prices is bright despite expectations for a slow demand recovery.

 
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