据1月7日Rigzone报道，渣打银行(Standard Chartered)最新的大宗商品报告显示，该行将2021年布伦特平均油价预期上调7美元，至每桶51美元。
该银行的分析师还将他们对2022年布伦特原油平均价格的预期也上调了7美元，至每桶59美元。这些分析师在报告中表示，沙特阿拉伯单方面减产，以及其重申削减库存的决心，改变了油价前景。分析师们指出，尽管今年第二季度油价存在下行风险，但沙特阿拉伯的行动已显著增强了油价的下限水平。
渣打银行强调，沙特阿拉伯在2月和3月额外削减原油日产量100万桶的举措，被视为是一种先发制人的措施，目的是在短期基本面不确定性增加的情况下，维持全球库存下降的势头。
该报告指出，预计第一季度全球石油需求依然疲弱，季度环比仅增加30万桶/天，达到9390万桶/天。需求量将低于疫情爆发前700万桶/天左右。
报告强调，需求疲软，预计欧佩克+大多数国家将推迟增产，加上沙特阿拉伯的额外减产，以及其他国家的补偿性减产，将使近期的原油市场保持紧俏。预计全球库存将达到每天110万桶，这个规模不大，但可以防止库存正常化进程陷入停滞。
此前，惠誉国际解决方案国家风险与行业研究机构(Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research)透露，其对2021年1月布伦特原油价格的预测较2020年12月保持不变。该公司预计，布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶53美元，2022年为每桶51美元，2023年为每桶55美元，2024年为每桶60美元。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶54.51美元。自2020年10月原油价格低于每桶38美元以来，该商品价格一直在稳步上涨。
王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Bank Boosts 2021 Oil Price Forecast by $7
Standard Chartered has increased its 2021 average Brent oil price forecast by $7 to $51 per barrel, the company’s latest commodity report has revealed.
Analysts at the bank, who also raised their 2022 average Brent oil price forecast by $7 to $59 per barrel, said in the report that Saudi Arabia’s unilateral cut and its demonstration of a renewed and restated determination to reduce inventories changes the outlook for prices. The analysts noted that, while they still see downside risk for oil prices in the second quarter of this year, they think Saudi Arabia’s actions have significantly strengthened the floor for prices.
Standard Chartered highlighted that Saudi Arabia’s move to cut its crude oil production by “We expect global oil demand to remain weak in Q1-2021 with a quarter “Despite demand sluggishness, we expect the delay in OPEC+ production increases for most countries, combined with Saudi Arabia’s “We expect a global inventory draw of 1.1 million barrels per day. Not large, but enough to prevent the process of inventory normalization stalling,” the analysts continued.
Earlier this week, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research revealed that its Brent crude oil price projections had remained unchanged from December 2020 to January 2021. The company expects Brent crude prices to average $53 per barrel this year, $51 per barrel in 2022, $55 per barrel in 2023 and $60 per barrel in 2024.
At the time of writing, Brent crude oil was priced at $54.51 per barrel. The commodity has been rising steadily since October 2020, when it was valued at under $38 per barrel.
