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花旗:2021年油价将回到每桶60美元

   2020-09-16 5510
核心提示:据彭博社9月14日报道,花旗集团放出乐观消息:2021年底前油价将上涨至每桶60美元。花旗大宗商品研究全球主管Ed Morse接受采访时表

据彭博社9月14日报道,花旗集团放出乐观消息:2021年底前油价将上涨至每桶60美元。

花旗大宗商品研究全球主管Ed Morse接受采访时表示:"在我们的基本情况下,价格上涨是因为市场趋于供需平衡,大量库存被消耗。”

最近几周,由于冠状病毒顽固地持续存在,以及欧佩克+让削减的石油供应重返市场,石油库存的减少速度似乎有所放缓。这导致全球基准布伦特原油价格本月迄今下跌了约12%。

Morse称,由于经济增长,全球石油消费需要到2021年底才能回到2019年的每日1.01亿桶的水平。花旗预计,全球基准布伦特原油2021年的平均价格将在每桶55美元左右,年底前上涨至每桶60美元大关,届时西德克萨斯中质原油价格将回升至每桶58美元。目前布伦特原油价格接近每桶40美元。

不过,大宗商品交易巨头托克集团(Trafigura Group)预计,由于需求疲弱,原油库存将在今年年底前继续增加,市场在今后几个月里会变得更糟。相比之下,花旗预计布伦特原油价格将攀升,第四季度将达到每桶48美元。

Morse称,对花旗而言,石化原料和汽油将是燃料行业最大的增长动力,而航空燃料的消费预计将在2024年至2025年卷土重来。不过,布兰特原油突破每桶60美元将是短暂的,因油价上涨将导致美国产量反弹,并且还有几个未知因素可能会影响市场。

王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下:

Citi Has a Message for Oil Bulls: $60 Oil to Return by 2021

Citigroup Inc. has a message to cheer up despairing oil bulls: prices will get back to $60 a barrel before the end of 2021.

“We’re bullish definitely,” Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citi, said in an interview during the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference. “In our base case, prices go up because the market balances” and gigantic inventories are drawn down, he said.

The rate at which those stockpiles are shrinking appears to have slowed in recent weeks as the coronavirus proved stubbornly persistent and the OPEC+ alliance returned barrels to the market. That’s pushed global benchmark Brent crude down around 12% so far this month.

It will take until late 2021 for global oil consumption to return to the 2019 level of 101 million barrels a day due to growth in economy, Morse said. Citi sees global benchmark Brent crude, which is currently trading near $40 a barrel, averaging around $55 in 2021 before getting back to the $60 mark by the end of the year. West Texas Intermediate will recover to $58 by then.

Commodity trading giant Trafigura Group, however, expects crude stockpiles to increase through the end of this year For Citi, petrochemical feedstock and gasoline will be the biggest growth drivers for fuels, while the consumption of jet fuel is expected to stage a comeback in 2024-2025, Morse said.

Brent’s move back above $60 could be short-lived, however, as higher prices will lead to a rebound in American production, Morse said. There are also several unknown factors that could affect the market, he said.

 
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