据彭博社12月12日消息，欧佩克及其盟友12月7日决定从明年年初开始，将日产量限制在120万桶左右，两年前还曾进一步减产。在正常情况下，对于几乎一夜之间就看到货物减少的船东来说，这将是一个可怕的转变。但航运分析师预测，这一次，美国页岩气的崛起可能会很好地保护运货商。
全球最大的船舶经纪公司投资银行Clarksons Platou的股票研究总经理Frode Morkedal表示：“由于美国正在增加其产量，欧佩克+正在减产，因此对油轮产量的整体影响有限。”
如果船舶运货商确实度过了这场风暴，它将突显欧佩克在试图支撑油价时面临的中心困境：进一步减产可能会刺激竞争对手的生产，尤其是页岩气。鉴于欧佩克对海运贸易至关重要，几年前油轮行业承受欧佩克产量大幅减少的想法几乎是不可想象的。
世界最大出口国沙特阿拉伯于12月7日承诺，1月份日产量将比11月减少近100万桶。与此同时，美国75年来首次成为石油净出口国。
美国能源情报署周三在月度展望报告中说，美国原油2019年的日产量将以118万桶的速度增长。这几乎就是欧佩克承诺要在今年上半年遏制的产量。
随着美国产量激增，港口正在竞相建设设施，以服务通常将货物运往亚洲的超级油轮。路易斯安那州海上石油港是美国最大的深水设施，早在今年2月就开始出口超级油轮。12月9日，该港口表示在此前七天，它已经完成了三艘装载美国国内原油的超大型油轮的装载工作。
美国对亚洲的出口增加意味着油轮从波斯湾通常的出口港口启航时，航程也需要比以往更长，这可能会进一步降低可用性。除了LOOP，超级油轮还可以在墨西哥湾出口终端从收集石油的小型船舶上装载货物。
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师Fotis Giannakoulis在一份报告中表示：“美国原油出口预计将继续快速增长，这将大大缓解欧佩克减产和船舶供应增加的压力。”
曹海斌 摘译自 彭博社
原文如下：
Oil Tanker Owners Find Solace in Shale as OPEC Readies Cuts
The producer group and allies decided “OPEC+ is reducing their output as U.S. is increasing theirs, hence the overall limited effect for tanker volumes,” said Frode Morkedal, managing director of equity research at Clarksons Platou, an investment banking unit of the world’s biggest shipbroker.
If owners do weather the storm, it would underscore the central dilemma facing the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as it tries to prop up prices: deeper output cuts risk spurring rival production, especially shale. The idea of the tanker industry withstanding heavy reductions in OPEC production would have been almost unthinkable a few years ago, given the group’s vital importance to seaborne trade.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter, pledged U.S. production will expand at a rate of 1.18 million barrels a day in 2019, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday in its monthly outlook. That’s almost exactly the amount that OPEC+ pledged to curb -- for the first six months of the year.
As U.S. production surges, ports are racing to build facilities to serve supertankers that normally haul cargoes to Asia. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the nation’s biggest deepwater facility, began supertanker exports back in February. Increased U.S. exports to Asia mean tankers will need to travel longer distances than when sailing from their usual export ports in the Persian Gulf too, potentially further reducing availability. As well as LOOP, supertankers can load cargoes in the Gulf of Mexico from smaller ships that themselves collected the barrels from export terminals.
“U.S. crude exports are expect to continue to grow rapidly, adding considerable relief from the OPEC cut and increase in vessel supply,” Fotis Giannakoulis, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note.
