中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带2月6日报道，美联储(Federal Reserve)将成为今年油价的主要推动因素之一。
这是PVM石油协会（PVM oil Associates）的石油分析师斯蒂芬·布伦诺克（Stephen Brennock）的说法，他告诉媒体，美联储将逐步放慢加息步伐的预期将对美元构成压力，从而支撑油价。
布伦诺克警告称，然而，的确存在不确定性因素。因此，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议的结果可能会对美元和油价造成很大的波动。
Envirus Intelligence Research（EIR）高级副总裁Al Salazar强调，美联储加息旨在抑制通胀和减缓经济活动，并指出这种情况不支持油价上涨。
Salazar称，市场担心经济衰退的可能性，这肯定会导致油价下跌。并补充道，尽管如此，经济严重衰退导致原油和产品库存增加的可能性仍然很低，这推动了市场对今年下半年的看涨情绪。
在上周发给本网站的一份声明中，EIR主管比尔·法伦·普莱斯（Bill Farren Price）表示，该公司预计2023年下半年石油需求的上升将引发库存减少和价格上涨，2023年第四季度的价格预计将比当前的远期价格高出20至30美元/桶。
将美联储收紧政策视为供应限制因素
能源研究所（IER）著名高级研究员丹·基什（Dan Kish）告诉本网站，可以将美联储的紧缩政策视为供应限制。
Kish表示，随着借贷成本的上升，这将对资本密集型行业产生重大影响，不仅是石油，还包括基础设施和可再生能源行业。
他补充道，随着项目成本上升，在世界需要更多石油来帮助抑制通胀的时候，项目数量会减少。
Kish接着指出，从长远来看，如果美联储的紧缩政策导致经济衰退，这将降低需求和油价。
FOMC
FOMC一般指联邦公开市场委员会。联邦公开市场委员会 (The Federal Open Market Committee)，隶属于联邦储备系统，主要任务在决定美国货币政策，透过货币政策的调控，来达到经济成长及物价稳定两者间的平衡。
联邦公开市场委员会每年举行8次定期会议，在这些会议上，委员会审查经济和金融状况，确定适当的货币政策立场，并评估其价格稳定和可持续经济增长长期目标所面临的风险。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Fed Will Be>The Federal Reserve will be>That’s according to Stephen Brennock, an oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, who told Rigzone that expectations that it will gradually pare back the pace of rate hikes should weigh>“However, there is an element of uncertainty hence the outcomes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings could prove very volatile for the dollar and oil prices,” Brennock warned.
Al Salazar, a Senior Vice President at Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), highlighted that the Fed’s rate hikes are intended to curb inflation and slow economic activity, noting that such conditions are not supportive of higher oil prices.
“Markets are concerned about the possibility of a recession, which will certainly cause pockets of oil price weakness,” Salazar told Rigzone.
“That said, the likelihood of a major recession leading to material crude and product inventory builds remain low, which drives our bullishness in the second half of this year,” Salazar added.
In a statement sent to Rigzone last week, Bill Farren-Price, the director of EIR, said the company expects rising oil demand in the second half of 2023 to spark inventory draws and higher prices, “with a price call for Q4 an estimated $20-$30 per barrel above the current forward strip”.
Think of Fed Tightening as Supply Restraint
Dan Kish, a distinguished senior fellow at the Institute for Energy Research (IER) told Rigzone that you can think of the Fed tightening as a supply constraint.
“As the cost to borrow money goes up, it affects capital-intensive industries significantly, not just oil, but infrastructure and renewable energy as well,” Kish said.
“As costs rise for projects, there will be less of them at the very time when the world needs more oil to help tamp down inflation,” he added.
“In the longer run, if the Federal Reserve’s tightening leads to recession, that will reduce demand and the price of oil,” Kish went>FOMC
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest, its website notes.
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year, and, at these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth, the Fed’s website outlines.
