据FXstreet8月26日消息，尽管美国产品需求增加了35.4万桶/天，但石油和产品总库存的减少不足以维持当前的涨势。TD证券大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek预计，WTI将小幅下跌至65美元的水平。
美联储的缩减成为额外的逆风：“OPEC+承诺在未来几个月内每天增加40万桶的供应量，这将使市场比之前预期的更为宽松。”
“最近整个曲线上的收益率上升、美元走强以及减量后的风险偏好减弱可能是另一组可能导致原油价格暂时走低的因素。”
“美国净出口的急剧下降表明国际需求仍然疲软，这得益于关注原油市场的主要机构都因疫情而大幅下调第三季度需求预测，而且可能还会有更多。因此，WTI原油价格在短期内回升至65美元/桶也就不足为奇了。”
“考虑到未来几个月世界其他地区的经济可能会有所改善，以及OPEC+将继续调整供需，从长期来看，前景看起来更为光明， WTI很可能会进入70美元以上的区域。”
祝精燕 摘译自 FXstreet
原文如下：
Oil: WTI to grind lower towards the $65 in the near-term – TDS
Despite the fact that US product demand is up 354,000 b/d, the oil and total product inventory draw is not enough to keep the current rally. Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, expects WTI to edge lower towards the $65 level.
Fed’s tapering to be an additional headwind
“OPEC+ commitment to increase supply by 400,000 b/d in each of the coming months should make the market looser than previously expected.”
“The recent increase in yields across the curve, a firmer USD along with less risk appetite post taper announcement could be another set of factors likely bringing crude lower for a time.”
“The sharp drop in US net exports suggests that international demand is still soft, which is supported by the fact that key agencies following crude oil markets are all downgrading their Q3 demand projections aggressively due to COVID-19, with possibly more to come. As such, a WTI move back to $65/b in the near-term would not be a big surprise.”
“Considering signs that improvements on the economic side in the rest of the world in the coming months along with the fact that OPEC+ will continue to adjust supply to demand, the longer-term looks more promising and WTI could well move into the $70+ territory.”
