中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2023年1月25日报道，虽然基本面还不足以把油价维持在每桶100美元以上，但基本面足以维持长期在每桶90美元以上的交易。
根据发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告，渣打银行的分析师们就是这么认为的。这份新报告指出，今年头两个交易日的“大幅下跌”之后，出现了“稳步调整”的上涨。
分析师们在报告中指出：“1月5日开始的反弹到1月23日每桶超过了10美元，布伦特原油价格今年第一次盘中突破了2022年第四季度的每桶88.63美元的平均水平。”
“油价反弹一直在稳步上升；在过去12个交易日中，有10个交易日盘中高点走高，11个交易日盘中低点走高。”
在报告中，分析师们指出，此次油价反弹受到了更为积极的投机情绪支撑。
分析师们在报告中表示：“最新数据显示，我们的原油基金经理仓位指数周环比增加23.2，至-39.6，这是自2020年4月价格低点以来最大的周环比改善。”
分析师们在报告中补充道：“我们认为，交易商在1月达成的共识是，对经合组织(OECD)的经济衰退的担忧有所减弱，而对需求大幅增长的前景更加确信，尤其是来自亚洲两大国的需求。鉴于市场目前相当平衡，市场人气大幅改善，我们认为本轮反弹可以继续走高。”
在周二发给美国钻井网站的另一份报告中，麦格理银行的分析师们表示，看涨需求开始推动WTI和布伦特原油净多头和平仓头寸的增加，“因为每周的流动逆转了过去几个月几乎单调的平仓”。
麦格理银行分析师们在报告中补充道：“亚洲原油购买量的大幅增加，令包括西非和北海在内的核心布伦特原油市场吃紧。我们预计，亚洲重新开放带来的情绪和实物流动将在未来两到三个月增加净多头。”
“就像2022年一样，我们预计供应增长将在今年3月或4月扭转涨势。”分析师们继续说道。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶86.48美元。油价上一次报收于每桶90美元以上是在2022年11月16日。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Fundamentals Strong Enough for $90+ Oil Period
Fundamentals are not yet strong enough to sustain prices above $100 per barrel, but they are strong enough to sustain a prolonged period of trading above $90 per barrel.
That’s what analysts at Standard Chartered believe, according to a new report sent to Rigzone by the company, which noted that a “sharp decline” in the first two trading days of the year has been followed by a “steady correction” upwards.
“This has seen the rally that started>“The rally has been a steady grind upwards; in the past 12 trading days there have been 10 days of higher intra-day highs and 11 days of higher intra-day lows,” the analysts added.
In the report, the analysts noted that the rally has been supported by more positive speculative sentiment.
“Our crude oil money-manager positioning index increased by 23.2 week>“We think trader consensus during this month has become less concerned about OECD recession and more convinced of the prospect of significant demand growth, from two countries in Asia in particular. With the market currently fairly balanced and greatly improved sentiment, we think the rally can continue its grind higher,” the analysts added in the report.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone>“The large increase in Asian purchases have tightened core Brent markets including West Africa and the North Sea. We expect sentiment and physical flows from global reopening to increase net length over the next two to three months,” the analysts added in the report.
“Much like last year, we expect supply growth to reverse the rally in March or April,” the analysts continued.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent is trading at $86.48 per barrel. The last time it closed above $90 per barrel was on November 16, 2022.
