• 在急于取代产能大国管道天然气的过程中，欧洲进口了其去年贸易量的近四分之一的液化天然气
• 虽然欧洲有足够的天然气来度过这个冬天，但明年它将不得不进口更多的液化天然气来度过2023/2024年的冬天
• 今年亚洲的液化天然气需求量异常低，但预计明年的竞争将更加激烈
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年1月9日报道，由于欧洲寻求取代产能大国的管道天然气供应，欧洲去年进口了占其液化天然气贸易总量近四分之一的液化天然气，从而形成全球高价液化天然气市场。
今年冬天结束后，欧洲需要进口更多的液化天然气——在缺乏大量天然气供应的情况下——以补充天然气储存地点。分析师和行业高管一致认为，2022/2023年冬季欧洲天然气需求或多或少是有保障的，这得益于2023年的开局天气温和，以及亚洲需求低迷。亚洲是之前的液化天然气高价市场。但他们也警告说，如果亚洲的需求反弹，并加剧欧洲和亚洲市场之间争夺更多液化天然气供应的竞争，那么明年冬天欧洲的情况可能会糟糕得多。
去年，欧洲赢得了这场竞争，但欧洲基准天然气价格大幅飙升。2023年及以后的问题是，一旦亚洲需求开始复苏，欧洲的液化天然气供应是否会继续超过亚洲。
《金融时报》援引全球金融市场和基础设施提供商Refinitiv公布的统计数据显示，2022年，欧盟液化天然气进口量达到1.01亿吨，比2021年激增58%。数据显示，欧盟去年进口的液化天然气占全球总贸易量的24%。
伦敦咨询公司Timera Energy去年11月份表示，欧洲转向液化天然气对已经紧张的全球液化天然气市场造成了需求冲击，欧盟每年的需求增加了5000万吨。
Timera Energy指出，欧洲在液化天然气市场上的角色从消极、灵活的液化天然气需求下降急剧转变为直接、积极的竞争对手。
欧洲大部分液化天然气进口都受到了亚洲需求低迷的推动。而南亚和东南亚的大多数国家根本无法负担飙升的液化天然气现货价格。买家已重新开始敲定长期协议，即使是欧洲买家，他们此前也不愿锁定长期供应协议，因为液化天然气的碳足迹与欧盟的气候目标之间存在冲突。
然而，根据Timera Energy的说法，到2025年的大部分液化天然气供应都是“锁定”的，尽管欧洲正在扩大其液化天然气进口能力，但在2025至2026年之前，供应将是有限的，届时卡塔尔和美国的大型新液化天然气出口项目将上线。
美国能源信息署(EIA) 去年11月援引国际液化天然气进口商集团(GIIGNL)和贸易出版社公布的统计数据称，到2024年前，欧盟和英国的液化天然气进口总量预计将比2021年增加34%，即每天增加68亿立方英尺。EIA表示，荷兰、波兰、芬兰、意大利和德国每天新增和扩大的液化天然气再气化能力约为17亿立方英尺。
上周，德国在威廉港新开放的液化天然气进口终端迎来了第一艘装载液化天然气的运输船，这些液化天然气货物来自美国卡尔克苏帕斯出口设施。
欧洲可能仍难以通过不断增加的液化天然气进口来满足其天然气需求。
根据国际能源署最近发布的一份报告，如果产能大国的管道天然气供应降至零，那么今年，欧盟的天然气供需缺口可能达到270亿立方米。
大宗商品交易商托克公司去年12月表示，随着产能大国管道天然气输送的大幅下降，欧洲将在2023年需要进口“大量”的液化天然气。
托克在截至2022年9月30日的年度报告中表示：“尽管欧洲应该通过动用库存和削减需求来避免今年冬天出现供应中断，但鉴于来自管道天然气流量大幅减少，欧洲将需要在2023年进口大量液化天然气。”
托克表示，欧洲的天然气价格将不得不保持高位，这样欧洲大陆才能继续吸引大部分液化天然气货物，与其他主要需求中心竞争。这家大宗商品交易商预计，欧洲将优先考虑供应安全，“直到明年冬天及以后”。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Energy Crisis Makes Europe The World’s Premium LNG Market
· In its rush to replace Russian natural gas, Europe imported nearly>· While Europe has enough natural gas to get through this winter, it will have to import even more LNG next year to survive the 2023/2024 winter.
· LNG demand from Asia, was abnormally low this year but competition is expected to be more aggressive next year.
Europe imported nearly>This year, Europe needs to import even larger volumes of LNG—in the absence of much of the gas—to refill gas storage sites after this winter ends. Analysts and industry executives concur that the 2022/2023 winter gas demand is more or less secured, thanks to a mild start to 2023 and subdued demand in Asia, the previous premium market for LNG. But they also warn that next winter could be much worse for Europe if Asian—especially Chinese—demand rebounds and intensifies the competition between the European and Asian markets for drawing more LNG supply.
Last year, Europe won that competition, as European benchmark prices surged after it has been started cutting off pipeline supplies to most of its customers to the west. The question for 2023 and beyond is whether Europe will continue to beat Asia for LNG supply>In 2022, the EU’s imports of LNG hit 101 million tons, which was a 58% surge compared to 2021, per data from Refinitiv cited by the Financial Times. The EU imported a total of 24% of all LNG traded last year, according to the data.
Europe’s pivot to LNG has created a demand shock to an already tight global LNG market, with additional 50 million tons annually of EU demand, London-based consultancy Timera Energy said in November.
Europe’s role in the LNG market sharply changed from a passive and flexible LNG sink to a direct and aggressive competitor, Timera Energy noted.
Much of the European LNG imports were aided by lackluster demand in Asia, while most of South and Southeast Asia simply couldn’t afford the skyrocketing spot LNG prices. Buyers have returned to securing term deals, even buyers in Europe that were previously reluctant to lock in supply for the long term in view of the clash between the carbon footprint of LNG and the EU’s climate ambitions.
However, most of the LNG supply to 2025 is ‘locked in’, and although Europe is expanding its LNG import capacity, there will be limited supply until 2025-2026, when large new projects in Qatar and the U.S. come>The EU and the UK are expected to raise their combined LNG import capacity by 34%, or by 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), by 2024 compared with 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in November, citing data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas importers (GIIGNL) and trade press. Around 1.7 Bcf/d of the new and expanded LNG regasification capacity has been added in the Netherlands, Poland, Finland, Italy, and Germany, the EIA said.
Last week, Germany welcomed the first tanker carrying LNG at the newly opened LNG import terminal at Wilhelmshaven, with the cargo arriving from the Calcasieu Pass export facility in the United States.
Europe could still struggle to meet its gas needs with growing LNG imports.
According to a recent report from the IEA, if Russian gas supply drops to zero and Chinese LNG demand rebounds to 2021 levels, the EU could have a gas supply-demand gap of 27 billion cubic meters in 2023.
With the plunge in Russian pipeline gas deliveries, Europe will need “huge volumes” of LNG in 2023, commodity trader Trafigura said in December.
“While Europe should avoid a blackout this winter by drawing>Natural gas prices in Europe will have to remain elevated so that the continent can continue to attract most of the LNG cargoes in competition with the other key demand centers, according to Trafigura. The commodity trader expects Europe to prioritize the security of supply “through next winter and beyond.”
