中国石化新闻网讯 欧佩克重量级产油国阿联酋表示，从长期来看，原油价格将处于“下降模式”。
“认为石油将永远存在是一厢情愿的想法。”阿联酋能源部长Suhail Al-Mazrouei在彭博社(Bloomberg)报道的ADIPEC能源会议上表示。
“无论我们如何保护它，它都处于衰落状态”，阿联酋的这名官员说。阿联酋是欧佩克最有影响力的成员国之一，也是主要的原油出口国。
本周早些时候，欧佩克在ADIPEC上发布了年度《世界石油展望》，预测石油需求将一直增长到2045年。欧佩克表示，预计石油在能源结构中仍将占据最大份额，到2045年将占到近29%的份额。在欧佩克看来，除了煤炭以外，所有主要燃料类型的需求都将在2045年之前实现增长。此外，欧佩克还表示，到2045年，全球石油行业将需要在上游、中游和下游累计投资12.1万亿美元，相当于每年超过5000亿美元。
欧佩克对石油需求的乐观展望与其他预测者和分析师的预测形成了鲜明对比，后者认为石油需求可能在21世纪30年代初达到峰值。
倡导到2050年实现能源转型和净零排放的国际能源署(IEA)在上周发布的《世界能源展望》中表示，化石燃料消费预计将在本十年内达到峰值或趋于稳定，而地缘政治冲突后的政策和贸易流动转变将加速这一进程。IEA在其《2022年世界能源展望》中表示，IEA基于当前政府政策和环境编制的《世界能源展望》情景，首次将全球对每种化石燃料的需求设定为峰值或稳定期。
根据国际能源署的最新估计，就连此前预计将继续上涨的天然气，现在也可能与煤炭和石油一样，在2030年左右达到峰值。
寿琳玲 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
UAE Believes The Oil Industry Is In “Decline Mode”
Crude oil is in “decline mode” in the long term, OPEC heavyweight the United Arab Emirates (UAE) says.
“To assume oil is going to be there forever is wishful thinking,” the UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said at the ADIPEC energy conference, as carried by Bloomberg.
“No matter how much we defend it, it’s in decline mode,” said the official from the UAE,>Earlier this week, OPEC presented its annual World Oil Outlook at ADIPEC, in which it forecast that demand for oil would continue to grow all the way through 2045. Oil is expected to retain the largest share in the energy mix, accounting for almost a 29% share in 2045, the cartel said. In OPEC’s view, all major fuel types, with the exception of coal, will see demand growth through 2045. Moreover, OPEC also said that the global oil sector would need a cumulative investment of $12.1 trillion in the upstream, midstream, and downstream through to 2045, equating to over $500 billion each year.
OPEC’s rosier outlook>The International Energy Agency (IEA), an advocate of the energy transition and net-zero emissions by 2050, said in its own world energy outlook last week that fossil fuel consumption is expected to peak or plateau within this decade, accelerated by the policy and trade flow shifts following the war. For the first time ever, a World Energy Outlook scenario from the IEA based>Even natural gas, which was previously expected to continue rising, could now join coal and oil in peaking around 2030, according to the IEA’s latest estimates.
