据Neftegaz 10月25日新德里报道，据Energyworld报道显示，印度石油天然气公司(ONGC)董事长苏巴什·库马尔(Subhash Kumar)表示，即使可再生能源加速普及，化石燃料仍将在全球能源框架中占据重要地位，但石油公司今后将不得不开发风险更低的模式。
库马尔在《经济时报》全球市政厅发表讲话时说，最近有一场关于不同能源在未来几十年可能采取的途径的讨论。
有一种看法认为，可再生能源可能很快就会结束石油时代。
他认为：然而，根据该领域许多专家最近的分析，即使可再生能源加快发展，未来几十年，化石燃料仍将在全球经济中发挥主导作用。我也相信这是可能的情况。
库马尔还补充道：消费结构的转变，生活水平的提高和不断壮大的中产阶级，尤其是在印度，将成为石油和天然气的需求驱动力，就印度而言， 预计石油需求将以世界上最快的速度增长，到 2030 年将达到每天约 1000 万桶，几乎是 2020 年消费量的两倍。
此外，天然气消费量预计将出现更大的增长，到2040年将达到1.4308亿吨，复合年增长率为4.18个百分点，而2018年为5810万吨。
他表示:因此，石油行业在未来几年仍将保持重要地位。
毫无疑问，石油行业本身将不得不成为金融机构，采用更好的环境、社会和治理实践，这正成为一个关键的商业背景。
他还表示，电动汽车的普及速度可能会抑制交通运输部门的石油需求，而交通运输部门是石油的主要消费来源。
此外，世界各国政府为实现净零目标而采取的政策和措施，将对石油经济的未来产生深远的影响，无论是在其运营方面，还是在其产品的需求方面。
库马尔表示，石油公司，尤其是国有石油公司，本应专注于油气勘探和生产，但油价的周期性给这些独立勘探和生产公司带来了沉重的业务风险。
他指出:因此，风险更小的整合模式，即按比例分配上游、炼油和营销资产，正成为常态。印度石油天然气公司还整合了整个油气价值链，目前其上游、炼油和下游资产的比例几乎为1:1:1。
一体化模式已经成为全球主导的商业模式，不仅对埃克森美孚、bp和道达尔等国际石油公司，对沙特阿美、挪威国家石油公司和巴西国家石油公司等国有石油公司亦是如此。
裘寅 编译自 Neftegaz
原文如下：
onGC Chairman: Fossil fuels will continue to play dominant role for decades
Fossil fuels will continue to remain significant in the global energy basket even with accelerated adoption of renewables but the oil companies will have to develop less risky models going forward, Indian align="justify"> Speaking at the Economic Times Global Townhall, Kumar said these days there is a discussion about the pathways different sources of energy may take over the coming decades.
There is a perception that renewable sources of energy may soon end the oil era.
He said:However, according to the recent analysis by many specialists in the sevtor, even with an accelerated development of renewable sources, the fossil fuels will continue to play a dominant role in global economy for several decades to come.I also believe that this is likely to be the scenario.
Kumar also added that the structured shift in consumption, rising living standards and a growing middle class, particularly in India, will be the demand drivers for oil and gas and as far as India is concerned, it is projected that the oil demand will rise at the fastest pace in the world to reach about 10 million barrels a day by 2030, almost double of the consumption in 2020.
Also, natural gas consumption is projected to witness a bigger rise, at a CAGR of 4.18 percentage points to 143.08 million tonnes by 2040, as opposed to 58.10 million tonnes in 2018.
He said:Thus, the oil industry is expected to remain important and relevant in the coming years.
No doubt, the oil industry itself will have to be financial institutions, to adopt better environmental, social and governance practices, which is emerging as a key business.
He also said that the rate of adoption of electric vehicles could be a driver in curbing the oil demand in transport sector which is a major consuming source for oil.
Also, the policies and measures adopted by governments ascross the world towards achieving net zero targets will have a profound impact align="justify"> The oil corporations, especially the NOCs, had the mandate to focus align="justify"> He noted:Hence, the less riskier integrated model, with proportionate upstream, refining and marketing assets, is becoming the norm. align="justify"> The integrated model has become the predominant business model across the globe, not only for international oil companies like ExxonMobil, BP and Total but also for NOCs like Saudi Aramco, Statoil and Petrobras.
