据烃加工网站9月9日报道 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）周三表示，2021年美国原油产量预计将下降20万桶/日，降至1108万桶/日，并指出飓风“艾达”导致的降幅将大于此前预测的16万桶/日。
8月下旬，墨西哥湾近海90%以上的原油产量因这场风暴而关闭。有几家公司仍在恢复生产到正常水平的过程中，由于停电和一些设施损坏，重启计划已经放缓。
该机构表示，由于中断，墨西哥湾8月份的平均日产量为150万桶，比7月份下降30万桶。
预计墨西哥湾的产出将在9月份逐步恢复，当月平均产量为120万桶/日，第四季度将恢复到平均170万桶/日。
该机构还表示，预计2021年美国石油和其他液体燃料消耗量将增加155万桶/日，至1974万桶/日，与此前预测的158万桶/日相比增幅较小。
2022年，受页岩产量增长的推动，美国原油产量预计将增长至平均约1172万桶/日。
与去年同期相比，石油和天然气钻机总数增加了约94%。
2022年的需求预计将增长89万桶/日，达到2063万桶/日，比该机构此前预测的86万桶/日增长幅度更大。
EIA称，全球8月石油和液体燃料消耗量估计为9840万桶/日，比2020年8月增加570万桶/日，但仍比2019年8月减少400万桶/日。
王磊 摘译自 烃加工
原文如下：
U.S. crude output to decline more than expected after Ida
U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.08 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said align="justify"> More than 90% of crude output in offshore Gulf of Mexico was shut in late August due to the powerful storm. Several companies are still in the process of returning production to normal levels and restart plans have been slowed due to power outages and damage to some facilities.
As a result of the outage, Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production averaged 1.5 million bpd in August, down 300,000 bpd from July, the agency said.
Output in the GOM is expected to gradually come back align="justify"> The agency also said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.55 million bpd to 19.74 million bpd in 2021, a smaller increase compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.58 million bpd.
For 2022, U.S. crude output is expected to increase to average about 11.72 million bpd, driven by growth in shale production.
The total oil and gas rig count is up about 94% over this time last year.
Demand for 2022 is expected to rise 890,000 bpd to 20.63 million bpd, a bigger increase than the agency's previous forecast for a rise of 860,000 bpd.
Globally, an estimated 98.4 million bpd of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in August, an increase of 5.7 million bpd from August 2020 but still 4 million bpd less than in August 2019, the EIA said.
