据今日油价网站8月18日消息 雷斯塔能源公司的一份分析显示，国际航空限制仍在阻碍航空燃料像其他石油产品一样快速恢复。自疫情爆发以来，道路燃料的大部分需求破坏现在已经逆转，航空燃料因此成为迄今为止最大的落后者，使石油总需求无法恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。特别是亚洲航空燃油需求自2010年7月以来首次下滑至低于欧洲水平，这是一次令人震惊的挫折，因为2020年1月，亚洲航空燃油需求增长了约50%。
从石油产品的总需求来看，2020年4月消减2100万桶/日需求的新冠病毒在很大程度上已经逆转，7月份的需求下降约450万桶，低于疫情前的水平。我们8月份的估计值为440万桶/日，但根据中国和其他地方截至目前为止的流动限制，我们发现需求破坏可能会超过这一水平，然后才可能开始萎缩。需求破坏预计将在年底消散，12月对石油产品的需求略高于2019年的水平。
我们估计，2021年的航空燃料需求将比2019年水平低270万桶/日，而柴油和汽油（主要用作道路燃料）与同期相比将只落后120万桶/日。对于汽油和柴油，2021年7月的需求量比疫情前减少160万桶/日，8月的影响计算为150万桶/日，与上述风险相同。如果不因疫苗接种计划缓慢和德尔塔疫情恶化而受到遏制，到2021年底，新冠病毒对道路运输的负面影响将完全消失。
与道路燃料相反，航空燃料最近一直在挣扎。2021年7月的日需求量比疫情前2019年7月的日需求量低300万桶。8月份的需求缺口目前计算为280万桶/日，但如果近期航空活动持续滞后，需求缺口可能上升至300万桶/日。尽管这种影响预计将逐渐减弱，但2021年12月航空燃料的需求缺口仍将达到约200万桶/日。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Asia Sees Stunning Setback In Jet Fuel Demand
International aviation restrictions are still preventing jet fuel from recovering as fast as other oil products, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals. Most of the demand destruction seen in road fuels since the outbreak of the pandemic has now been reversed, and jet fuel has thus become by far the top laggard that is keeping total oil demand from recovering to pre-Covid-19 levels. Asian jet fuel demand in particular just slipped to below European levels for the first time since July 2010, a stunning setback as it had been about 50% ahead in January 2020.
Looking at the total demand for oil products, much of the Covid-19 effect of 21 million barrels per day (bpd) destruction in April 2020 has been reversed, with July’s demand landing about 4.5 million bpd lower than its pre-pandemic level. Our August estimate stands at 4.4 million bpd but based align="justify"> We estimate that jet fuel demand in 2021 will end up being about 2.7 million bpd below 2019 levels, while diesel and gasoline (primarily used as road fuels) will align="justify"> Contrary to road fuels, jet fuel has struggled recently. July 2021 demand was 3.0 million bpd lower than what it was in July 2019, before the pandemic. August’s demand gap is for now calculated at 2.8 million bpd but could rise to 3.0 million bpd if the recent lag in aviation activity persists. Even though the effect is expected to thin down gradually, December 2021 will still see a demand shortfall of about 2 million bpd for jet fuel.
