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欧佩克+或将考虑适度增产

   2021-02-25 6330
内容提要:据OE网2月24日报道,根据欧佩克+消息人士表示,鉴于油价回升,欧佩克+产油国将讨论从4月份起适度放松石油供应限制,不过一些消息

据OE网2月24日报道,根据欧佩克+消息人士表示,鉴于油价回升,欧佩克+产油国将讨论从4月份起适度放松石油供应限制,不过一些消息人士建议,鉴于抗击疫情的奋斗可能出现新的挫折,暂时保持稳定。

欧佩克及其盟国,即被称作欧佩克+的集团,去年创纪录地减产970万桶/日,因疫情导致需求锐减。截至今年2月,其仍持有712.5万桶/天的原油,约占全球需求的7%。

今年1月,由于冠状病毒持续封锁,欧佩克+放缓了计划增产的步伐,以应对弱于预期的需求。沙特阿拉伯在2月和3月做出了额外的自愿减产。

据三位欧佩克+的消息人士表示,在不增加库存的情况下,从4月开始日产量增加50万桶似乎是可能的,尽管部长们将在3月4日会议上考虑更新的供需平衡将确定他们的决定。

欧佩克+的其中一位消息人士称,油价肯定很高,市场需要更多石油来给价格降温 。从4月份开始每日增加50万桶是一个选择——看起来是个不错的选择。

油价上涨至每桶67美元,为2020年1月以来最高水平,疫苗的推出和经济复苏的希望增强了市场可能接受更多石油的信心。世界第三大石油进口国印度敦促欧佩克+放松减产。

沙特阿拉伯自愿减产100万桶/日的计划将于下月结束。虽然利雅得尚未透露3月份之后的计划,但该组织对沙特阿拉伯将从4月份开始恢复供应的预期越来越高,或许是逐渐恢复供应。

一些欧佩克+成员国还预计,沙特将愿意进一步放宽减产,但尚不清楚他们是否与利雅得有过直接沟通。

沙特阿拉伯已警告石油生产国要“极其谨慎”,一些欧佩克成员国对需求再度受挫表示警惕。一位欧佩克成员国的消息人士表示,如果沙特在4月份完全恢复石油供应,将意味着欧佩克+的其他国家不应该再增加产量。

该消息人士表示,沙特自愿减产的决定将返回市场。

作为2月获准增产的欧佩克+成员国之一,俄罗斯渴望增加供应。据一位消息人士上周表示,如果在3月4日的会议前没有任何变化,俄罗斯将提议增加石油产量。

郝芬 译自 OE

原文如下:

OPEC+ to Weigh Modest Output Boost, Sources Say

OPEC+ oil producers will discuss a modest easing of oil supply curbs from April given a recovery in prices, OPEC+ sources said, although some suggest holding steady for now given the risk of new setbacks in the battle against the pandemic.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, cut output by a record 9.7 million bpd last year as demand collapsed due to the pandemic. As of February, it is still withholding 7.125 million bpd, about 7% of world demand.

In January OPEC+ slowed the pace of a planned output increase to match weaker-than-expected demand due to continued coronavirus lockdowns. Saudi Arabia made extra voluntary cuts for February and March.

Three OPEC+ sources said an output increase of 500,000 barrels per day from April looked possible without building up inventories, although updated supply and demand balances that ministers will consider at their March 4 meeting will determine their decision.

"The oil price is definitely high and the market needs more oil to cool the prices down," A rally in prices towards $67 a barrel, the highest since January 2020, the rollout of vaccines and economic recovery hopes have boosted confidence the market could take more oil. India, the world's third biggest oil importer, has urged OPEC+ to ease production cuts.

Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) ends next month. While Riyadh hasn't shared its plans beyond March, expectations in the group are growing that Saudi Arabia will bring back the supply from April, perhaps gradually.

Some OPEC+ members also anticipate that the Saudis will be willing to ease cuts further, but it was not clear if they had had direct communication with Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia has warned producers to be "extremely cautious" and some OPEC members are wary of renewed demand setbacks. "The Saudi voluntary cut will be back to the market," the source said.

Russia, one of the OPEC+ countries which was allowed to boost output in February, is keen to raise supply and a source last week said Moscow would propose adding more oil if nothing changed before the March 4 virtual meeting.

 
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