据ICIS-MRC网站1月12日莫斯科报道,路透社援引贸易消息人士和分析师的声明称,贸易商加速了12月浮动储油的原油销售,以满足亚洲地区更高的需求,因该地区的炼油厂为迎接冬季消费高峰而节流。
全球过剩石油储备的减少,以及全球最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯突然决定在未来两个月进一步减产,预计将保持供应紧张,并支撑油价。
数据分析公司Vortexa亚洲首席分析师Serena Huang表示,油价上涨,现货溢价因原油市场趋紧的预期而扩大。我们可能会看到贸易商加速抛售他们储存的实物原油。
新冠疫苗的推出也提振了2021年燃料需求复苏的希望,并使布伦特原油的市场结构变成了现货溢价,减少了交易员储存石油的动机。现货溢价指的是现货价格相对于未来几个月的价格更高。
据分析公司Vortexa的数据显示,去年12月,全球浮动存储的使用量最大,与11月相比,环比减少2580万桶。
根据数据显示,浮动储存量在2021年初进一步下降至约7800万桶,为去年4月新冠疫情肆虐燃料需求以来的最低水平。
根据Refinitiv Eikon的数据显示,亚洲主要买家——印度和日本——去年12月进口了大量原油,因为炼油商在补充库存,而其总体炼油产量已回到甚至超过疫情前的水平。
一家亚洲炼油厂的贸易员表示,已卖出了很多库存。一些贸易商已经没有剩余的浮动货物了。
据Vortexa的数据显示,截至去年12月底,占全球浮式原油储存量60%以上的亚洲,有6,090万桶,较10月减少了37%。
据数据情报公司Kpler称,上个月亚洲的浮式储原油约为6400万桶,8月底为1.49亿桶。
Vortexa的Huang表示,浮动原油储存量不太可能回到2020年的高点,因为今年石油需求的复苏预计将加速,这将提振油轮需求,并支撑运费,而运费是浮动储存量的一个关键成本组成部分。
Kpler的石油和天然气分析师Homayoun Falakshahi表示,目前的远期曲线并不能刺激储存,因此贸易商们希望释放储存的原油。
郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC
原文如下:
Traders accelerate oil sales from floating storage to meet Asia demand
Traders have accelerated crude oil sales from floating storage in December to meet higher demand in Asia as the region’s refineries throttled up for peak winter consumption, reported Reuters with reference to trade sources and analysts' statement.
The drop in excess global stored oil and a sudden decision by world’s top exporter Saudi Arabia for extra output cuts in the next two months are expected to keep supplies snug and support prices.
“Oil prices are up, and backwardation has widened in expectation of a tighter crude market,” said Serena Huang, Asia lead analyst at data analytics firm Vortexa.
“We could expect to see traders accelerating the sell off of physical barrels that they are holding in storage.”
The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has also lifted hopes for fuel demand recovery in 2021 and flipped Brent’s market structure into backwardation, reducing incentives for traders to store oil. Backwardation refers to higher prompt prices versus those in future months.
Global floating storage drew by the most in December last year with the average monthly volume down by 25.8 million barrels versus November, data from analytics firm Vortexa showed.
Floating storage levels fell further at the start of 2021 to about 78 million barrels, the lowest since April when the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged fuel demand, the data showed.
Asia’s major buyers, India and Japan, imported a high volume of crude in December, data “A lot has been sold from storage. Some traders have no floating cargoes left already,” said a trader with an Asia refinery.
Asia, which accounts for more than 60% of global crude floating storage, had 60.9 million barrels at the end of December, down 37% from October, according to Vortexa.
Data intelligence firm Kpler said Asia’s crude in floating storage was about 64 million barrels last month, which compares with 149 million barrels in late August.
Vortexa’s Huang said floating crude storage was unlikely to return to 2020 highs, as a bumpy oil demand recovery is expected to gather pace this year, which would lift tanker demand and support freight rates, a key cost component for floating storage.
Homayoun Falakshahi, oil and gas analyst at Kpler, said: “The current forward curve isn’t incentivising storage, so traders will want to release stored crude.”





