据能源世界网1月10日孟买报道，印度评级机构ICRA在一份报告中表示，22财年，印度国内对石油产品的需求预计将以8%-10%的健康速度同比增长。因此，该报告称，印度经济增长和工业活动回升。
该报告解释道，预计汽油消费的增长是由于个人对机动性的偏好，而高速柴油(Hsd)和工业燃料的销量高，则可能受到经济活动回升的推动。
据该报告称，由于自行决定的性质和航空旅行的风险，预计航空涡轮燃料（ATF）的需求将下降。
ICRA企业评级副总裁兼联合负责人Prashant Vasisht表示，尽管印度炼油厂的产能利用率正在恢复，2020年10月达到89％，但由于全球供应过剩，炼油利润仍然很低。展望2022财年，由于ATF需求相对于疫情之前的水平大幅降低，炼油厂的利润率预计仍将较低。尽管是年美国、欧洲和亚洲已宣布关闭多家炼油厂，但预计炼油经济疲软将持续很长时间。
此外，Vasisht还指出，2022年财政年度的复苏总额预计为150亿卢比.低复苏水平和适中的原油价格应该会导致更低的营运资本借款和利息成本。此外，印度政府对巴拉特石油公司（BPCL）的剥离对于确定炼油和营销行业的未来竞争动态将是一个关键的可监控因素。
此外，该报告指出，由于公司弥补了因21财年的限制和锁定而造成的时间损失，因此预计22财年的资本支出和投资将保持健康。
该报告称，需求和价格前景更加明朗，以及在“ Aatmanirbhar Bharat”下的当地制造业有更大的推动力，预计将长期刺激需求。由于2021财年的资本支出减少，2022财年的现金应计额增加，预计债务水平将下降， 尽管一些公司已筹集债券或不可兑换债券(NCD)以获取低利率。到2022财年结束时，债务水平将从2021财年结束时的5.8万亿卢比将至近4.9万亿卢比。
由于债务水平下降和盈利能力提高，2022财年的信贷指标可能会有所改善。
此外，鉴于原油变现的增加、管道的稳定回报、健康的需求增长、主导的市场地位、强大的金融灵活性和关键信贷指标有较大空间，石油和天然气部门各实体的信贷状况应保持稳定。
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
原文如下:
Strong recovery in oil and gas volumes likely in 2021-22: ICRA
The domestic demand for petroleum products is expected to increase at a healthy rate of 8 to 10 per cent in FY22 Accordingly, the report said a growth in economy and pick-up in industrial activity.
The report explained that growth in Motor Spirit (MS) consumption is expected due to preference for personal mobility while higher off-take of High Speed Diesel (HSD) and industrial fuel would likely be driven by a pick-up in economic activity.
As per the report, Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) demand is expected to lag due to the discretionary nature and the perceived risk of air travel.
According to Prashant Vasisht, Vice President and Co-Head, Corporate Ratings, ICRA, "Though, refinery capacity utilisation levels are recovering and were 89 per cent in October 2020, refining margins remained weak due to the global supply overhang."
"Going forward in FY2022, the refinery margins are expected to remain low owing to significantly lower ATF demand vis-a-vis pre-Covid levels. Even though, there have been announcements of the closure of a number of refineries in CY2020 in the US, Europe and Asia, weak refinery economics are expected to be protracted."
Besides, Vasisht cited that gross under-recoveries are expected to be moderate at Rs 15 billion in FY2022.
"Low gross under-recovery levels and moderate crude oil prices should lead to lower working capital borrowings and interest costs. Additionally, the Government of India's divestment of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) would be a key monitorable to determine the future competitive dynamics in the refining and marketing sector," he said.
Furthermore, the report pointed out capex and investments are expected to be healthy in FY22, as companies make up for the time lost due to restrictions and lockdowns in FY21.
It said a clearer outlook "The debt levels are expected to decline owing to lower capex undertaken in FY2021 and higher cash accruals in FY2022, even though several companies have raised bonds or Non- Convertible Debentures (NCDs) to capture low interest rates. The debt levels would moderate to nearly Rs 4.9 lakh crore by FY2022 end from Rs 5.8 lakh crore at FY2021 end."
"The credit metrics are likely to improve in FY2022 due to a decline in debt levels and improvement in profitability."
Additionally, the credit profile of the entities in the oil and gas sector should remain stable, given the increase in crude oil realisations, stable returns from pipelines, healthy demand growth, dominant market position, strong financial flexibility and headroom in key credit metrics.
