据今日油价1月11日报道，与许多石油巨头一样，由于受到新冠肺炎疫情的重大影响、油价大幅下跌以及石油需求峰值的威胁，埃克森美孚面临着相当大的压力。由于债务负担沉重，人们越来越担心埃克森美孚会成为一家“僵尸企业”——没有产生足够的营业收入来支付利息支出。埃克森美孚因油价长期低迷而举步维艰，在2020年前9个月报告了24亿美元的亏损和不断恶化的现金流，但它仍不是一家“僵尸企业”。这家全球石油巨头有多种手段可以提高盈利能力和现金流，不过关键在于油价以及埃克森美孚在全球范围内多元化的优质能源资产组合前景改善。为了应对油价急剧下跌和提高盈利能力的需要，埃克森美孚于2020年11月宣布，将优先考虑高价值资产的资本支出，其中最关键的是位于南美洲近海的圭亚那-苏里南盆地的业务。
2015年5月，埃克森在圭亚那近海Stabroek区块首次发现石油。截至2019年12月，这家综合能源巨头在Liza油田开始生产，日产能为12万桶。2020年9月，埃克森美孚在Stabroek区块发现了第18个油田，并将可采石油资源的估计提高到80亿桶以上。
2021年1月，埃克森宣布将继续开发Stabroek区块的Payara油田，该油田将于2024年投产，日产能将达到22万桶。到2020年12月，埃克森美孚已经实现了Liza油田的生产目标，预计到2026年，660万英亩的Stabroek区块的日产量将超过75万桶。
即使在油价下跌的情况下，由于盈亏平衡成本特别低，这对埃克森美孚来说也是一项高利润的资产。该公司合作伙伴赫斯公司(Hess)拥有该区块30%的权益，埃克森美孚拥有45%的权益，中海油(CNOOC)拥有25%的权益。据赫斯公司称，Liza油田的原油盈亏平衡开采价格为每桶35美元，而且这一价格还将进一步下跌。赫斯表示，计划于2022年开始运营的第二艘浮式生产储油船Liza Unity将以更低的盈亏平衡价格(约25美元/桶)开采原油。由于原油API比重为32，含硫量为0.58%，Liza油田生产的原油相对容易且高效地提炼成高质量的低含硫量燃料。这将确保该公司不会以明显低于国际布伦特原油基准的价格出售原油。
埃克森美孚与圭亚那政府就Stabroek区块达成了有利的产量分成协议，包含有1800万美元的签约资金，只需支付2%的石油开采特许权使用费和50%的利润分成条款，不过，该条款在75%的勘探和开发成本收回后才适用。这使埃克森美孚在Stabroek区块的业务利润很高，即使油价依然疲软，布伦特原油的交易价格在每桶50美元左右，随着产量的增长，它也成为一个重要的收入来源。国际货币基金组织预测，尽管许多其他国家因疫情而遭受衰退，但这个圭亚那的国内生产总值在2020年将以令人印象深刻的26%的速度增长。2021年，圭亚那的经济将再增长8%。行业咨询公司Rystad Energy预计，随着埃克森美孚领衔的石油热潮势头增强，这将导致未来10年政府收入激增30倍以上。
有进一步的迹象表明，这仅仅是一个巨大的石油繁荣的开始，不仅将使埃克森美孚和圭亚那受益，也将使邻国苏里南受益。2020年12月，埃克森美孚与马来西亚国家石油公司(Petronas)宣布，在苏里南近海52号区块获得了油气发现。Petronas表示:“Sloanea-1勘探井发现了储层质量良好的含油气砂岩。油井数据证明，该区块的油气开采具有相当大的潜力。特别是考虑到52区块与58区块接壤。要知道，Apache和道达尔于2020年在58号区块获得了三个重大的石油发现。”
值得一提的是，2000年，美国地质调查局确定圭亚那-苏里南盆地拥有超过150亿桶原油和42万亿立方英尺天然气的未发现资源。2019年，美国地质调查局(USGS)表示，正计划对圭亚那-苏里南盆地进行重新勘测，以期发现高于最初估计水平的油气含量。这对埃克森及其合作伙伴来说是个好兆头，这表明，它们将发现更多新油田，并继续增加该盆地的低成本石油产量。随着这些油田的发现和产量的增长，将极大地促进圭亚那和苏里南的经济增长，满足政府收入的迫切需要。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Exxon’s Mega Oil Finds In Guyana Are Just The Beginning
Like many global oil majors ExxonMobil is under considerable pressure because of the significant fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, sharply weaker oil prices and the threat of peak oil demand. There are growing fears that Exxon, because of its tremendous debt burden, is a zombie company. These are generally companies that are not generating sufficient operating income to cover its interest expenses. While Exxon is struggling because of the prolonged slump in oil prices reporting a $2.4 billion loss for the first nine months of 2020 and deteriorating cashflow it is not yet a zombie company. The global oil supermajor has several levers at its disposal to boost profitability and cash flow, key being the improved outlook for oil prices along with Exxon’s globally diversified portfolio of quality energy assets. In response to sharply weaker oil prices and the need to boost profitability Exxon announced during November 2020 that it intended to prioritize capital spending for high value assets, key among them being its operations in the Guyana-Suriname Basin located in offshore South America.
Exxon made its first Guyana oil discovery in the offshore Stabroek Block during May 2015. By December 2019, the integrated energy major had commenced production at the Liza oilfield with the capacity to pump 120,000 barrels daily. During September 2020, Exxon made its 18th oil discovery in the Stabroek Block and upgraded its estimate of recoverable oil resources to more than 8 billion barrels.
That month Exxon announced it will proceed with developing the Payara oilfield, in the Stabroek Block, which will come This is a highly profitable asset for the integrated oil major, even with weaker oil prices, because of its particularly low breakeven costs. According to partner Hess, which has a 30% interest in the block alongside Exxon’s 45% and CNOOC's 25%, the Liza oilfield is pumping crude oil at a breakeven price of $35 per barrel, and this will fall further. Hess claims that the breakeven price for the second FPSO to be deployed, Liza Unity which is scheduled to commence operations in 2022, will pump crude at an even lower breakeven price of around $25 per barrel. With an API gravity of 32 degrees and 0.58% sulfur content, the crude oil produced from the Liza field is relatively easily and cost effectively refined into high quality low sulfur content fuels. That will ensure that it does not sell at a significant discount to the international Brent price benchmark.
Exxon secured a favorable production sharing agreement (PSA can be viewed here) with Guyana’s government for the Stabroek Block. There was an $18 million signing bonus with There are further indications that this is merely the start of what will become a vast oil boom that will benefit not The Guyana-Suriname Basin was determined by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2000 to have mean undiscovered resources of over 15 billion barrels of crude oil and 42 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In 2019, the USGS stated it was looking to resurvey the Guyana-Suriname Basin with a view to the geological formation holding greater quantities of hydrocarbons than initially estimated. That bodes well for Exxon and its partners to make more discoveries and continue growing low-cost oil production in the basin. As those oil discoveries are made and production grows, it will substantially boost economic growth in the impoverished former colonies of Guyana and Suriname as well as urgently needed government revenues.
