中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2022年11月14日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)最新的短期能源展望(STEO)报告显示，欧佩克小幅上调了其对2022年和2023年布伦特原油价格的预测。
根据EIA发布的11月份STEO报告公布的数据，EIA目前预计今年布伦特原油现货价格平均将为每桶102.13美元，明年平均将为每桶95.33美元。在10月份的STEO报告中，EIA曾预计今年布伦特原油现货平均价格将达到每桶102.09美元，2023年将达到每桶94.58美元。
尽管EIA在11月份STEO报告中提高了布伦特原油的预测值，但仍低于9月份的预测值。在9月份STEO报告中，EIA曾预计今年布伦特原油现货平均价格将触及每桶104.21美元，明年将触及每桶96.91美元。
EIA在其最新的STEO报告中指出：“欧佩克和非欧佩克石油产量的增长，尤其是美国的石油产量增长，使我们预测的布伦特原油价格在2023年的年平均基础上低于2022年。”
“然而，我们预计布伦特原油价格将在2023年下半年开始上涨”，EIA在最新STEO报告中补充道。
在11月份STEO报告中，EIA警告称，全球经济状况走弱可能限制全球石油需求增长，“可能导致油价最终低于我们的预期”。
根据11月份STEO报告，EIA预计今年美国原油日产量平均将为1183万桶，2023年将升至1231万桶。在10月份STEO报告中，EIA曾预计今年美国原油日产量将达到1175万桶，2023年将达到1236万桶。EIA在其最新的STEO报告中强调，2021年美国原油平均日产量为1125万桶。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
USA EIA Raises Oil Price Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly raised its Brent oil price forecast for both 2022 and 2023, the organization’s latest short term energy outlook (STEO) has revealed.
The EIA now sees the Brent crude oil spot price averaging $102.13 per barrel this year and $95.33 per barrel next year, according to its November STEO. In its October STEO, the EIA projected that the Brent spot average would come in at $102.09 per barrel in 2022 and $94.58 per barrel in 2023.
Despite the increase in the EIA’s Brent forecast values in November, the figures are still down>“Growth in OPEC and non-OPEC oil production, most notably production in the United States, keeps the Brent crude oil price in our forecast lower>“However, we expect the Brent crude oil price will begin rising in 2H23,” the EIA added in the STEO.
In its November STEO, the EIA warned that weakening global economic conditions, which it said could limit oil demand growth, “create the potential for oil prices to end up lower than our forecast”.
The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 11.83 million barrels per day in 2022, before rising to 12.31 million barrels per day in 2023, according to its November STEO. In its October STEO, the EIA expected U.S. crude oil output to come in at 11.75 million barrels per day in 2022 and 12.36 million barrels per day in 2023. U.S. crude oil production was 11.25 million barrels per day in 2021, the EIA highlighted in its latest STEO.
