据石油新闻12月31日消息称，Wood Mackenzie的《澳大利亚上游2021年展望报告》显示，2021年至少有110亿美元的天然气项目有望获得最终投资决定。
这些项目以液化天然气回填为重点，包括三个上游FID——三井的怀特西亚、桑托斯的巴罗萨和伍德赛德的斯卡伯勒——以及供应东海岸市场的AIE港肯布拉液化天然气进口终端。
Wood Mackenzie的高级分析师丹尼尔·托勒曼说:“在今年尽一切可能勒紧裤腰带之后，澳大利亚的运营商将打开他们的钱包并开始消费。随着新一轮项目得到批准，积压FID将开始清除。但要实现这一点，宏观环境必须持续改善，价格必须呈上升趋势。”
第一个批准项目预计将是位于珀斯盆地的怀特西亚。该项目将从西北大陆架出口液化天然气，并于2023年底开始生产。接下来，桑托斯预计将在2021年第二季度晚些时候批准巴罗萨天然气项目，尽管其有新的碳排放目标，且其二氧化碳含量较高。
伍德赛德可能会批准"“卡伯勒到冥王星”项目。
Toleman表示:“伍德赛德将批准该项目，无需签订任何额外的液化天然气合同，并承担现货液化天然气价格的风险。这是一项大胆的战略，使它们能够利用近期市场基本面增强的机会。”
Wood Mackenzie还预计AIE将批准肯布拉港口进口终端供应东海岸市场。
液化天然气进口将成为供应的边际成本，国内价格将随着全球液化天然气价格的上升而上升，包括再气化的成本。对于拥有未签约天然气的上游公司来说，这是一个好消息。
虽然企业支出可能会上升，但并购市场的迹象不那么明显。Wood Mackenzie预计，至少会有一笔重要的液化天然气或基础设施资产易手。
随着国际石油公司和主要石油公司退出市场，本土企业将有机会在该国上游产业中扮演更重要的角色。
曹海斌 摘译自 石油新闻
原文如下：
Over US$11 billion of Australian gas projects to be sanctioned in 2021
Wood Mackenzie’s Australasian upstream 2021 outlook report shows at least US$11 billion of gas projects poised for FID in 2021.
With LNG backfill as the focus, these projects include three upstream FIDs – Mitsui’s Waitsia, Santos’ Barossa and Woodside’s Scarborough – and the AIE Port Kembla LNG import terminal which will supply the East Coast market.
Wood Mackenzie senior analyst Daniel Toleman said: “After doing everything possible to tighten belts this year, Australian operators will open their wallets and start spending. The backlog of FIDs will begin to clear as a fresh round of projects are sanctioned. But for this to occur, there has to be continuing improvement in the macro-environment and prices trending up.”
The first cab off the rank is expected to be Waitsia, located in the Perth basin. The project will export LNG from the North West Shelf with production starting in late 2023. Next, Santos is expected to sanction the Barossa gas project late in 2Q21, despite its new carbon targets and the gas’ high CO2 content.
Woodside is likely to sanction the Scarborough to Pluto project.
Toleman said: “Woodside will sanction the project without contracting any additional LNG, taking on exposure to the spot LNG price. This is a bold strategy which allows them to take advantage of strengthening near-term market fundamentals.”
Wood Mackenzie also expects AIE to sanction the Port Kembla import terminal to supply the East Coast market.
LNG imports will become the marginal cost of supply and domestic prices would rise as they move towards global LNG prices, including the cost of regasification. This is positive news for upstream players with uncontracted gas.
While corporate spending could see an uptick, signs are less clear in the M&A market. Wood Mackenzie expects at least one significant LNG or infrastructure asset to change hands.
As international oil companies and the Majors exit the market, there will be opportunities for local players to take up bigger roles in the country’s upstream industry.
