据12月16日Gulf News报道，随着中国和印度需求推动现货市场加速反弹，亚洲买家正以高于上月的价格购买石油。知情人士透露，1月底至2月初装载的俄罗斯ESPO原油本周较基准价格上涨3.20美元至3.50美元。卡塔尔2月份Al-Shaheen原油的售价比迪拜原油高出约1.30美元/桶，而上个月的平均溢价为0.75美元。
中国11月份的单日炼油率连续第二个月升至创纪录水平，而在汽油和液化石油气需求强劲的背景下，几家印度炼油企业的开工率接近100%。不过，亚洲的石油市场复苏并不均衡。随着新冠肺炎疫情在韩国卷土重来，韩国原油进口量上月降至10年来的低点。
值得注意的是，在经济刺激乐观情绪的推动下，油价升至2月份以来的最高水平。石油期货最近飙升至疫情爆发以来的最高水平。随着美国经济刺激谈判取得突破性进展，加上疫苗的上市，令市场对需求复苏的乐观情绪升温，纽约市场油价飙升至近10个月来的最高水平，同时大盘也出现反弹。
美国基准原油期货价格周二上涨1.3%。道明证券(TD Securities)全球大宗商品策略主管巴特 梅雷克(Bart Melek)表示:“油价正对风险偏好大幅上升做出反应。但由于第二波疫情冲击可能继续损害需求增长，石油库存可能仍停留在一定水平，市场对需求是否会大幅上涨产生了顾虑。”
美国石油协会(American Petroleum Institute)报告上周美国国内原油供应增加近200万桶后，油价小幅走低。此前，国际能源署(International Energy Agency)下调了其对2021年的需求预测，并表示新冠肺炎疫情造成的原油供应过剩可能要到明年年底才会消失。
由于有迹象显示，大规模接种疫苗将提振经济和援助需求，石油期货价格近期飙升至疫情爆发以来罕见的高位。去年11月，洛杉矶港口的进口集装箱装载量同比增长约四分之一，表明需求出现了增长。
尽管如此，在IEA做出低迷的需求预测之前，欧佩克决定下调其对2021年第一季度石油消费量的预期。该组织及其盟友准备从1月份开始向市场恢复部分供应。与此同时，据GasBuddy表示，在美国，由于新冠肺炎病例激增，在圣诞节期间驾车出行的人数预计将下降25%。
CFRA Research能源股票分析师斯图尔特?格利克曼表示:“在石油需求真正恢复之前，必须要有几个触发因素。明年上半年，我们将看到石油需求缓慢地复苏，但仍需要一段时间，才能让所有人安心，让市场完全重新开放。”
最近的期货和掉期市场喜忧参半，布伦特原油的即期价差一度跌回期货溢价的边缘，即近期合约比远期合约更便宜。相比之下，上周的现货溢价高达18美分。与此同时，中东迪拜基准原油一直在进一步走向现货溢价。
API报告还显示，上周成品油供应增加，馏分油供应增加476万桶。
王佳晶 摘译自 Gulf News
原文如下：
Physical Oil Rally Powers align="left"> Asian buyers are snapping up oil at higher prices than last month as a physical-market rally gathers pace align="left"> Russian ESPO crude for end-January to early-February loading fetched $3.20 to $3.50 a barrel over its benchmark price this week, according to traders who asked not to be identified. That’s up from $2.70 to $2.90 last month. Supplies of Qatar’s Al-Shaheen for February sold for around $1.30 above the Dubai price, compared with an average premium of 75 cents in the previous month.
Spot trading activity has been brisk this month with at least align="left"> Oil jumps to highest since February amid stimulus optimism
Oil futures have surged recently to highs not seen since the pandemic began
Oil surged to the highest in nearly 10 months in New York alongside a broader market rally as breakthroughs align="left"> US benchmark crude futures rose 1.3 per cent align="left"> "Oil's reacting to pretty significant increases in risk appetite," said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities. "But with the second wave probably continuing to damage demand growth and inventories likely staying at somewhat elevated levels, the market is having second thoughts about going materially higher."
Prices edged lower following settlement after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report domestic crude supplies rose by almost 2 million barrels last week. Earlier, the International Energy Agency trimmed its demand forecast for 2021 and said the crude oil glut left behind by the coronavirus pandemic will not likely clear until the end of next year.
Oil futures have surged recently to highs not seen since the pandemic sent prices for a tailspin, supported by indications that a widespread vaccine rollout will boost the economy and aid demand. imported containers loaded at the Port of Los Angeles in November increased by roughly a quarter year-over-year, signaling a bump in demand.
Still, the IEA's dismal demand projections follow OPEC's decision to cut its own forecasts for consumption in the first quarter of 2021 as the group and its allies prepare to start returning some supply to the market from January. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the number of Americans taking road trips during this Christmas is set to decline as much as 25% as people stay home amid soaring virus cases, according to GasBuddy.
"People are forgetting that there's a couple of triggers that have to happen before oil demand really comes back," said Stewart Glickman, energy equity analyst at CFRA Research. "The first half of the year we're going to see some resurgence of weakness in oil demand, because it's going to take time before everybody feels comfortable enough for things to start reopening fully."
The nearest portion of the futures and swaps markets are highlighting the mixed outlook. Brent's prompt time spread was align="left"> The API report also showed refined products rose last week, with distillate supplies notching a 4.76-million-barrel build last week. If confirmed by the Energy Information Administration's storage figures on Wednesday, that would be the third week in a row that distillate inventories rose after more than two months of consecutive draws.
