据9月28日Offshore Energy报道，澳大利亚工业、科学、能源和资源部(Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources)在其《资源与能源季报》(Resources and Energy Quarterly)中表示，该国的液化天然气出口量同比下降了12%，并指出近几个月来该国的液化天然气出口面临压力。
在澳大利亚的液化天然气投资浪潮中，七个新的液化天然气项目获得了超过2000亿美元的投资，这些项目都在2014年至2019年期间开始运营。这些项目的增加使澳大利亚的LNG年生产能力达到8800万吨。
不过，该报告称，6月至8月期间，澳大利亚的液化天然气发货量同比下降了12%。因此，澳大利亚的平均产能利用率预计将在2020年略有下降。根据这份报告，一些买家在2020年将期货购买量减少了大约10%，以选择更便宜的现货货物。
加上不少工厂进行了长期维修工程，两家液化天然气工厂也面临技术问题，液化天然气产量削减。
Prelude FLNG项目自2020年2月以来由于技术问题暂时关闭，该项目于2019年6月发运了第一艘货物，目前，尚未达到360万吨/年的额定产能。壳牌曾表示，重启作业的进程已经启动，但尚未宣布正式重启生产的日期。此外，Gorgon的生产也受到了影响，2号生产线的停产时间延长到了10月份。
从当前的情况来看，澳大利亚液化天然气出口量将在复苏前下降，预计将从2019-2020年的7900万吨下降到2020-2021年的7600万吨，这反映了新冠肺炎疫情对需求的影响以及上述技术问题对产能的影响。
随着疫情好转和技术问题的缓解，以及前哨产品产能的增加，预计2021- 2022年液化天然气出口将恢复到8000万吨左右。
能源部在报告中补充称，随着Barossa气田的天然气耗尽，达尔文液化天然气厂停产将在2022年对出口构成压力。
值得注意的是，桑托斯公司正在推进一项钻井填补计划，该计划可以延长油田寿命，缩短油田枯竭和Barossa回填项目启动之间的时间。Barossa项目的FID已经从2020年推迟，至今仍不确认具体日期。
由于疲软的市场环境导致资本支出削减、资产减记和FID延期，澳大利亚液化天然气项目的下一波投资前景仍不明朗。例如，达尔文和西北大陆架项目需要开发新的天然气田对供应缺口进行填补，该进程最早将从2021年开始。
预期盈利将从历史高位回落。澳大利亚的液化天然气出口收入预计将大幅下降，从2019- 2020年的480亿美元降至2020-2021年的310亿美元。预计出口收入下降的主要原因将是期货和现货价格疲软，以及出口量的下降。
预计油价下跌的影响将集中在2020年下半年，原因是与石油挂钩的期货合约价格影响滞后，而澳大利亚近四分之三的液化天然气以合约价格售出。
随着期货和现货价格上涨，预计2021- 2022年出口收益将回升至370亿美元。
对2020-2021年澳大利亚液化天然气出口收益的预期，已较2020年6月下调了37亿美元。这主要反映出出口量下降和汇率的修正。
王佳晶 摘译自 Offshore Energy
原文如下：
Australia LNG exports to drop by $17 billion for 2020-21
Australia’s Department of Industry, Science, Energy, and Resources stated in its Resources and Energy Quarterly that the country’s LNG shipments dropped by 12 per cent year-on-year and noted the pressure The wave of LNG investment in Australia saw over $200 billion invested in seven new LNG projects, which all began operating between 2014 and 2019. The ramp-up of these projects saw Australia’s annual LNG nameplate capacity reach 88 million tonnes.
However, the report claimed that Australia’s LNG shipments between June and August were 12 per cent lower year-on-year. As a result, Australia’s average capacity utilisation rate is expected to fall slightly in 2020. According to the report, some buyers exercised their rights to reduce contracted purchases by around ten per cent in 2020, with some of these replaced by cheaper spot cargoes.
Cargoes have also been delayed, several plants have undergone extended maintenance, and two LNG plants have faced technical issues.
More precisely, the Prelude FLNG project — which shipped its first cargo in June 2019, but had not yet reached its full nameplate capacity of 3.6 mtpa — has been temporarily shut since February 2020, due to technical issues.
Shell has indicated that the process to restart operations started, but has not announced an official production restart date.
Gorgon’s production has also been disrupted, with the shutdown of Train 2 extended to October, after cracks were discovered in its heat exchangers.
A shutdown of the whole plant was avoided, with phased shutdowns instead – Train 1 and 3 are expected to be taken offline for inspections in October 2020 and January 2021, respectively. There is a risk of extended shutdowns if further cracks are discovered.
Australian LNG export volumes to drop before recovering
Australia’s LNG exports are forecast to decline from 79 million tonnes in 2019-20 to 76 million tonnes in 2020-21, reflecting the impacts of COVID-19 LNG exports are forecast to recover to around 80 million tonnes in 2021-22, as the impacts of COVID-19 and technical issues ease and Prelude ramps up towards nameplate capacity.
The Department added in the report that a production halt at the Darwin LNG plant would weigh It is worth noting that Santos is advancing plans for an infill drilling program, which could extend the life of the field and narrow the time between its depletion and start-up of the Barossa backfill project. An FID for the Barossa project has been delayed from 2020 to an unspecified date.
The Department stated that the outlook for the next wave of investment in Australian LNG projects was still unclear with weak market conditions resulting in capital expenditure reductions, write-downs, and FID deferrals.
For example, the Darwin and North West Shelf projects will require new gas field developments as backfill from as early as 2021.
Earnings forecast to fall from record highs
LNG export earnings in Australia are forecast to fall sharply, from $48 billion in 2019-20 to $31 billion in 2020-21. The decline in export earnings is expected to be driven primarily by weak contract and spot prices and, to a lesser extent, lower export volumes.
The impact of the slide in oil prices is expected to be concentrated in the second half of 2020, due to the several-month lag of the flow-on effects for oil-linked contract prices – at which almost three-quarters of Australian LNG is sold.
Export earnings are forecast to partially recover to $37 billion in 2021-22, tracking an expected rise in contract and spot prices.
The forecast for Australian LNG export earnings in 2020-21 has been revised down by $3.7 billion from the June 2020 Resources and Energy Quarterly. The downward revision primarily reflects lower export volumes and exchange rate revisions.
