据今日油价9月17日报道，据盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)表示，由于2020年炼油利润率和需求疲弱，石油库存继续增加，石油需求复苏乏力，加上缺乏新冠肺炎疫苗，可能会推动油价到2021年回升至每桶50美元。
盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒•汉森(Ole Hansen)表示：“原油自6月以来一直处于每桶40美元的低位，交易格局相当稳定，然而，我们从现货市场的数据中看到了风险正在显现的证据。炼油厂利润疲软，主要是由于多余的柴油和航空燃料过剩造成的，导致存储设施正迅速被填满。”
尽管油价在经过上周15%的修正后，在周二找到支撑点，但盛宝银行认为，由于基本面仍然疲弱，短期内油价没有太多上行潜力。
汉森还表示：“由于疫情继续减缓燃料需求的复苏，我们认为，油价在未来几个月的增长潜力可能有限。考虑到这一点，并考虑到有增产的风险，我们预计布伦特原油将会在40美元/桶的低位徘徊，最终在年底和2021年走高。”
花旗集团(Citigroup)称，到明年年底，油价将升至每桶60美元，因为届时过剩的供应将得到缓解。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计，布伦特原油价格将在2021年第三季度升至每桶65美元，不过年底可能会走低，为每桶58美元。高盛还预计，WTI原油在明年第三季度前将上涨至每桶55.88美元，高于稍早预估的每桶51.38美元。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Saxo Bank: Oil Unlikely To Return Above $50 By Year-End
The faltering oil demand recovery and the lack of a COVID-19 vaccine will likely push the oil price recovery to $50 a barrel into 2021, as inventories continue to pile up in 2020 amid weak refinery margins and demand, according to Saxo Bank.
“Crude oil has been trading in a fairly stable pattern in the low $40s since June, however, we are seeing evidence in data from the physical market that there are risks emerging. Weak refinery margins, caused primarily by the excess of unwanted diesel and jet fuel, are leading to storage facilities rapidly filling up,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said Despite the fact that oil prices managed to find support The correction actually helped prices drop more in line with the fundamentals in the currently fragile outlook for the oil market, Hansen wrote in a post “As the pandemic continue to slow the recovery in fuel demand, the upside potential in our opinion is likely to remain limited over the coming months. With that in mind and given the risk of increased production, we see Brent crude oil settling into a new lower range around $40/b before eventually moving higher into year end and 2021,” he said.
In 2021, oil prices could hit $60 a barrel, according to Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.
Oil prices are set to rise to $60 a barrel by the end of next year as the oversupply will have been drawn down by then, according to Citigroup, which is bullish Goldman Sachs expects Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end the year lower, at $58 a barrel. Goldman also sees WTI Crude to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of next year, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts.
