据8月22日MENAFN消息：由于全球油价走低，需求严重紧缩，印度大幅减少石油进口。自4月以来，印度的石油进口量持续下降，7月已下降约36.6％，至约1230万吨，为十年来的最低水平。
就价值而言，7月石油进口额为38亿美元，与2019年7月的90亿美元相比，下降57.77%。
石油进口在4月降至1655万吨，比去年同期的1728万吨下降16％。同样在5月，原油进口量下降22.6％，是自2005年以来的最大降幅，与去年同期相比下降1,461万吨。在6月，原油进口量同比下降约29％，至约1,344万吨，为2011年10月以来的最低水平。
如果这种趋势得以维持，印度在2021财年的原油进口量将降至1.8亿吨，比2020财年的2.27亿吨大幅减少5,000万吨。按目前价格计算，这5900万吨的价值将接近200亿美元。
此外，由于油价仍处于较低水平，印度将进一步削减石油进口支出，否则2021财年的油价区间将在每桶35-45美元左右。
假设2021财年每桶原油平均价格为40美元，卢比兑美元价格接近当前水平，月进口量保持在平均1500万吨的低位，进口额可能降至去年水平的60%，即600亿至650亿美元。这种低水平的进口费用曾出现在2016财年，当时原油价格一度跌至每桶26美元。
在本财年第一季度，印度已将石油进口费用削减了约60％。2020年4月至6月期间的石油进口为130.8亿美元（9925.942亿卢比），比去年同期的348.5亿美元（24239.855亿卢比）下降62.47％。
根据石油部石油规划和分析小组(PPAC)的数据，该国2020财年的石油进口量约为2.27亿吨，进口费用为1,014亿美元。而2019财年为2.265亿吨，进口费用为1,119亿美元。
原油价格每下跌1美元，将导致该国的进口减少近290亿卢比，而卢比对美元的汇率下跌会使支出增加多达270亿卢比。
印度在2019财年进口了价值1,120亿美元的原油，但其进口费用在过去三个财年中大幅下降，2016财年的石油进口费用仅为640亿美元，当时油价因供应过剩而下滑，尤其是美国页岩油的进入。
燃料精炼厂原油加工量的下降预计也会对进口费用产生影响。
对印度而言，油价下跌起到了巨大的激励作用，因为该国86%的石油需求依赖进口。较低的进口费用也将对该国的财政赤字产生积极影响，在今年政府支出增加以抑制国内生产总值下滑后，该国的财政赤字已经低于此前的目标。
另一方面，对进口原油的依赖(以消费为基础)已从2018财年的82.9%上升到2019财年的83.7%和2020财年的85%，这意味着印度石油产量正在减少，更多地依赖进口来满足国内需求。
冯娟 摘译自 MENAFN
原文如下:
Covid-hit demand, low prices cut India's oil import bill 58% in July
In the oil sector, the global health emergency posed by the spread of the novel coronavirus is coming to India's advantage. The severe demand squeeze brought by the pandemic has ensured that India does not have to cut down After falling consistently since April, India's oil imports have fallen about 36.6 per cent (YoY) to about 12.3 million tonne in July, the lowest level in over a decade.
In terms of value, the July oil imports stand at $3.8 billion, a sharp 57.77 per cent drop in dollar terms compared to $9 billion in July 2019.
Oil imports has been consistently coming down since April when it fell to 16.55 million tonne, a decline of 16 per cent year-on-year, from 17.28 million tonne reported earlier. Similarly in May, crude oil imports fell by 22.6 per cent, the biggest drop since at least 2005, to 14.61 million tonne as compared to a year ago. In June as well, crude oil imports fell about 29 per cent (YoY) to about 13.44 million tonne, the lowest level since October 2011.
If this trend is maintained, India's import of crude in FY21 can fall to 180 million tonne, a sharp 50 million tonne lower than 227 million tonne the country imported in FY20. The value of this 59 million tonne at current prices itself will be close to $20 billion.
Moreover, India will further reduce its oil import bill by virtue of oil prices remaining low or the range will bound around $35-$45 a barrel in FY21.
Assuming an average $40 a barrel crude oil price and rupee-dollar prices holding closer to current levels, and monthly imports remaining low at an average of 15 million tonne, for FY21, the import bill could slip to 60 per cent of last year's level at $60-$65 billion.
This low level of import bill was witnessed in FY16 when crude had fallen to $26 a barrel for some time.
India has already cut down its oil import bill by around 60 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal. Oil imports in April-June 2020-21 were $13.08 billion (Rs 99,259.42 crore) which was 62.47 per cent lower in dollar terms compared to $34.85 billion (Rs2,42,398.55 crore), over the same period last year.
According to the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), the country's oil imports stood at around 227 million tonnes (mt) in FY20 against 226.5 mt in FY19. The import bill last year was $101.4 billion as against $111.9 billion in fiscal FY19.
A While India imported crude oil worth $112 billion in FY19, its import bill has transited substantially lower in the previous three financial years with the oil import bill standing at a mere $64 billion in FY16 when oil prices slipped Lower volume of crude processing by fuel refiners is also expected to have an impact For India, lower oil prices act as a big incentive as the country depends The dependency of imported crude (on consumption basis), This dependency has consistently increased in all five years of the Modi government.
