印度将驱动大宗商品下一轮超周期

   2018-12-14 IP属地 浙江中国石化1940

据道琼斯12月13日消息,汇丰银行指出,印度的人均国内生产总值(GDP)已达到中国2005年的水平,当时中国的大宗商品需求开始大幅增长。不过,与金属相比,印度的大宗商品需求更倾向于能源产品,因为印度经济的制造业密集度较低。预计印度未来几年的煤炭需求将在很大程度上抵消全球其它地区煤炭消费量下降的影响,而印度是全球第3大石油消费国。该行指出,到2040年,印度在全球石油消费中所占的份额预计将增长一倍以上,达到9%。

唐绍红 摘译自道琼斯

原文如下:

India to Drive the Next Commodities Supercycle

HSBC notes that India's per-capita GDP has reached the level China saw in 2005, when its commodity demand took off. However, as opposed to metals India's commodities appetite is more-strongly geared for energy products because its economy is less manufacturing-intensive. The country's coal demand in coming years is expected to largely offset declining consumption of the fuel elsewhere in the world while India is the 3rd-largest oil consumer. And its oil-use share globally is seen more than doubling to 9% by 2040, the bank notes.

 

 
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