由于经济略有改善，经济合作与发展组织（经合组织/OECD）为此提高了2023年和2024年全球经济增长预测
能源和食品价格下跌被认为是经济活动和左右市场情绪的关键因素
尽管经济增长，但全球经济复苏仍然脆弱，下行风险仍然存在
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年3月17日报道，经济合作与发展组织（经合组织/OECD）周五表示，由于2023年初能源和食品价格下跌，有迹象表明全球经济已略有改善，并上调了今明两年全球经济增长预期。
经合组织目前预计，今年全球经济将增长2.6%，高于其去年11月份预计的2.2%；2024年全球经济将增长2.9%，比去年11月份的预期提高0.2个百分点。
尽管全球经济增长预期有所提高，但经合组织警告称，全球经济复苏仍然脆弱，下行风险仍然倾斜。
经合组织表示，全球经济复苏前景的改善仍然脆弱。风险在某种程度上变得更加平衡，但仍倾向于下行。地缘政治冲突进程及其更广泛后果的不确定性是一个关键问题。
此外，美联储加息的影响难以评估，“可能会继续暴露高负债和资产估值过高的金融脆弱性，在特定的金融市场领域也是如此”。
经合组织表示，“全球能源市场的压力也可能重现，导致价格再次飙升和通胀上升”。
然而，经合组织指出，能源和食品价格的下降是今年年初改善经济活动和左右市场情绪的关键因素。
“虽然与地缘政治冲突发生前相比，通胀水平仍相对较高，但这提高了大多数公司和家庭的购买力，并有助于降低整体通胀。亚洲市场早于预期的重新开放预计也将对全球经济活动产生积极影响，减轻供应链压力，并提振国际旅游业。”
国际能源署(IEA)本周早些时候表示，亚洲市场的重新开放预计将推动今年全球石油需求的增长。
IEA在其最新一期的《石油市场报告》中表示，石油市场将从2023年上半年的供应过剩转向今年下半年的供应短缺，原因是亚洲市场经济反弹将推动全球石油需求升至创纪录高位。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
OECD: Falling Energy Prices Could Bolster Global Economic Growth
· The OECD has raised its global economic growth projections for 2023 and 2024 due to a slight improvement in the economy.
· Falling energy and food prices are credited as a key factor in the improvement of economic activity and sentiment.
· Despite the increases, the recovery is still fragile and risks remain skewed to the downside.
Signs have emerged of a slight improvement in the global economy, thanks to falling energy and food prices in early 2023, the OECD said>The OECD now expects global economic growth at 2.6% this year, up from 2.2% expected in November, and at 2.9% for 2024, up by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous projection in November.
Despite the increase in growth projections, the OECD cautioned that the recovery is still fragile and risks remain skewed to the downside.
“The improvement in the outlook is still fragile. Risks have become somewhat better balanced, but remain tilted to the downside. Uncertainty about the course of the war and its broader consequences is a key concern,” the OECD said.
In addition, the impact of the interest rate hikes is difficult to assess and “could continue to expose financial vulnerabilities from high debt and stretched asset valuations, and also in specific financial market segments.”
“Pressures in global energy markets could also reappear, leading to renewed price spikes and higher inflation,” the OECD said.
However, the organization noted that the decline in energy and food prices was a key factor in improving economic activity and sentiment in early 2023.
“While levels are still relatively high compared to pre-war, this is boosting purchasing power for most firms and households and is helping to lower headline inflation. The earlier-than-expected re-opening in Asia is also expected to have a positive impact>Asian reopening is expected to drive global oil demand growth this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said earlier this week.
The oil market is set to swing from a supply overhang in the first half of 2023 to a deficit in the latter part of the year as the economic rebound in Asia will push global oil demand to a record high, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report.
