能源危机和对能源安全的需求产生了对液化天然气（LNG）的长期需求
根据伍德麦肯兹的数据，2023年美国LNG年出口量可能达到8900万吨
伍德麦肯兹：到本十年末，美国的LNG产能可能会大幅增长，美国LNG出口量可能会翻一番
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年2月28日星期二报道，由于高气价和能源安全需求为长期液化天然气（LNG）需求和合同创造强劲动力，美国LNG出口设施开发商可能在未来五年内将启动价值1000亿美元的新LNG项目。
全球著名能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹在最近的一份报告中表示，在美国自由港LNG项目春季恢复运营后，美国今年将超过卡塔尔和澳大利亚，成为全球最大的LNG出口国。
根据伍德麦肯兹公布的数据，2023年美国LNG年出口量可能达到8900万吨。
“然而，这个出口量将不会止步于此”，伍德麦肯兹表示，并指出美国的LNG产能可能会在本十年结束前大幅增长，可能会使美国LNG出口量翻一番。
能源危机和对能源安全的需求——尤其是在爆发地缘政治冲突之后的欧洲买家中——为美国LNG开发商提供了签署计划新设施长期合同的绝佳机会，这将支持LNG项目的最终投资决定。
欧洲LNG需求飙升
由于气候目标和排放考虑，欧洲以前不愿承诺长期天然气交易，现在正在安装浮式存储再气化装置(FSRU)，以迎接取代管道天然气供应的LNG货物。
例如，德国公用事业公司正在与包括美国主要开发商在内的LNG出口商签署长期协议。德国已经在威廉港和卢布明港建立了两个浮式LNG进口终端并投入运行，而位于布隆斯比特港的第三个LNG终端正处于调试阶段。
在太阳能和风能取代大部分燃气发电之前，欧洲和其他大陆将需要天然气来维持照明和供暖。对于那些希望摆脱对单一大型供应国依赖的国家来说，多样化的天然气供应至关重要。
“能源供应将不再被视为理所当然”，伍德麦肯兹董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯日前如是说。
“任何国家都不能再允许自己依赖从单一供应商进口能源。在未来，能源安全将涉及燃料和来源的多样性，以及国内资源的首要地位。”
伍德麦肯兹指出，由于各国竞相确保天然气供应多元化，美国LNG行业发展良好。
“人们越来越有信心，认为欧洲能够度过未来3年，尽管天然气价格相对较高且波动较大。新的LNG供应量，主要是美国和卡塔尔的LNG供应量，将从2025年开始，帮助天然气价格回落到‘正常’。”
全球最大的LNG交易商壳牌公司2月早些时候在其年度LNG展望报告中表示，欧洲LNG需求激增，短期内将加剧与亚洲的竞争，并在较长期内主导全球LNG贸易。
LNG可能成为欧洲满足能源安全需求的核心能源供应，而中国可以为全球LNG市场提供更大的灵活性。然而，壳牌公司警告称，如果没有新的投资来增加供应，本世纪20年代末可能会出现另一个供需缺口。
永远变化的市场将鼓励美国新建LNG项目
伍德麦肯兹表示，对能源安全的担忧为未来五年计划、宣布和可能开发的更多LNG项目奠定基础。
伍德麦肯兹补充说，根据已经在建项目的组合和潜在项目的势头，美国LNG年产能可能在本十年结束前增长7000万吨至1.9亿吨，可能是目前出口量的两倍多。产能的增加将需要大量的新项目，这可能会在未来五年为美国带来高达1000亿美元的新项目。
伍德麦肯兹天然气和LNG资产研究主管贾尔斯·法雷尔表示：“创纪录的高价格和对能源安全的需求促使买家(包括投资组合参与者、美国生产商和基础设施公司)在2022年寻求美国LNG的长期交易，并为项目创造巨大的签约趋势。”
仅在2022年，美国就签署了6500万吨/年的LNG长期供应协议，而2021年仅为1850万吨/年。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
EU Energy Crisis May Lead To $100 Billion In New U.S. LNG Projects
· The energy crisis and the need for energy security has created a long-term demand for liquefied natural gas.
· U.S. LNG exports could reach 89 million metric tons per annum (mmtpa) in 2023, according to WoodMac.
· WoodMac: U.S. capacity could jump by the end of this decade, potentially doubling U.S. LNG exports.
Developers of U.S. LNG export facilities could launch $100 billion worth of new plants over the next five years as high prices and the need for energy security create strong momentum for long-term LNG demand and contracts.
The United States is set to overtake Qatar and Australia as the world’s top LNG exporter this year after Freeport LNG resumes operations in the spring, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a recent report.
U.S. LNG exports could reach 89 million metric tons per annum (mmtpa) in 2023, according to WoodMac.
“However, it won’t stop there,” the consultancy said, noting that U.S. capacity could jump by the end of this decade, potentially doubling American LNG exports.
The energy crisis and the need for energy security—especially among European buyers after the war—afford U.S. LNG developers the perfect opportunity to sign long-term contracts for planned facilities that would underpin final investment decisions (FIDs) of the projects.
Europe’s LNG Demand Soars
Europe, previously reluctant to commit to long-term gas deals due to climate goals and emissions considerations, is now installing floating storage regasification units (FSRUs) to welcome LNG cargoes that are replacing pipeline gas supply.
For example, German utilities are signing long-term deals with LNG exporters, including with major American developers. A year after the war and showed Europe how unreliable a supplier it is, Germany already has two floating import terminals up and running, in Wilhelmshaven and Lubmin, while a third LNG terminal, at Brunsbüttel, is in the commissioning phase.
Until solar and wind can replace much of the gas-fired electricity generation, natural gas will be needed in Europe and>“Energy supply will no longer be taken for granted,” Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac, wrote last week.
“No country can ever again allow itself to become reliant>The U.S. LNG industry has fared well as countries race to ensure diversified gas supply, WoodMac notes.
“There’s growing confidence that Europe can muddle through the next three years, albeit with relatively high and volatile prices. New supply volumes, mainly US and Qatari LNG, arrive from 2025, helping prices to ease back to ‘normal’,” Flowers said.
The surge in LNG demand in Europe is set to intensify competition with Asia in the short term and dominate LNG trade in the longer term, Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, said in its annual LNG outlook earlier this month.
LNG could become a core energy supply for Europe to meet energy security needs, while China could increasingly provide more flexibility to the global LNG market, the supermajor said. However, Shell warned that another supply-demand gap could be looming in the late 2020s without new investment in additional supply.
Forever-Changed Markets Set To Encourage New U.S. LNG Projects
Concerns about energy security are laying the foundations for more LNG projects to be planned, announced, and potentially developed over the next five years, WoodMac said.
based>“Record-high prices and the need for energy security drove buyers, which included portfolio players and US producers and infrastructure companies, to seek long-term US LNG deals in 2022 and created huge contracting momentum for projects,” said Giles Farrer, head of gas and LNG asset research for Wood Mackenzie.
In 2022 alone, 65 mmtpa of long-term U.S. deals were signed, compared to just 18.5 mmtpa in 2021.
