去年，美国油气行业的并购交易活动降至2005年以来的最低水平
最近，随着天然气价格的下滑，并购交易活动进一步下降
挪威雷斯塔能源公司公布的数据显示，美国400亿美元的能源交易可能仍未达成
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年2月28日报道，去年，美国油气行业的并购交易活动降至2005年以来的最低水平，尽管石油和天然气价格飙升，但美国油气行业去年仍完成了160笔并购交易。然而，这些并购交易大多是以最高价格收购顶级资产。美国油气行业表现良好，能够承受数十亿美元的并购交易。现在，情况正在发生变化。
《华尔街日报》最近报道称，由于天然气价格暴跌，美国油气行业的并购交易活动急剧下降。自去年12月以来，以暖冬为主的冬季加上海外需求强劲带来的充足供应，将天然气基准价格拖至每百万英热单位3美元以下，据业内人士称，计划中的并购交易正被取消或推迟。
《华尔街日报》援引雷斯塔能源公司公布的数据称，目前美国油气行业约有15笔并购交易面临不确定的未来。它们的总价值为400亿美元，其中一些很可能仍未达成——尤其是如果它们专注于天然气业务的话。
古根海姆证券高级常务董事穆罕默德·拉哈里说，“我很清楚，美国有多笔并购交易正在进行中，但由于天然气价格下跌而陷入停滞”。拉哈里对《华尔街日报》表示：“今年有很多并购交易计划退出，我认为其中许多可能会推迟。”
人们可能会认为，随着天然气价格下降，被出售的公司会同意更低的价格，但卖家似乎没有提供折扣，而买家则对天然气价格的未来走势感到焦虑。因此，东京燃气公司旗下的一家子公司收购美国天然气公司Rockliff能源公司的计划落空。如果交易顺利进行，它的价值将达到46亿美元，但天然气价格的大幅下跌显然让此次并购交易告一段落。
由于天然气价格下跌，私募股权公司也取消了在美国天然气领域的并购交易计划。天然气价格越便宜，买家对天然气资产的兴趣就越低，尽管未来需求前景乐观，尤其是美国天然气。
例如，能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹最近预测，未来5年美国可能会新增价值1000亿美元的液化天然气出口能力。伍德麦肯兹表示，基于已在建项目和潜在项目势头的组合，美国液化天然气年产能可能在本十年结束前增加7000万吨至1.9亿吨，这可能是美国目前液化天然气出口量的两倍以上。
这听起来肯定是对同一种天然气的长期需求有保证，目前美国的天然气价格略高于每百万英热单位2美元，去年曾达到每百万英热单位9美元。然而，即使有长期需求的保证，潜在买家仍不愿做出承诺。因为“不确定性”一直是这个市场游戏的名字，但现在不确定性比以往任何时候都更大。
目前，美国液化天然气需求的最大保证来源是欧洲。欧洲急于将对产能大国的天然气依赖转变为对美国液化天然气的依赖，欧洲目前严重依赖美国的液化天然气，并在现货市场上购买液化天然气。
虽然欧洲买家已经完成了几笔美国液化天然气的长期交易，但欧洲大陆收到的大部分交易数都来自现货市场。这是因为欧洲，特别是欧盟，要维护自己的面子——这是一个完全致力于实现净零排放未来的集团的面子——在这个集团里，化石燃料需要“无处可寻”。
这就是不确定性的来源，而这种不确定性已成为油气行业未来的新常态。尽管有明确的证据表明，世界仍然需要大量的石油和天然气，以及大量的煤炭，但欧洲和北美政府的净零排放努力给油气行业长期前景蒙上了一层阴影，并削弱了收购意愿。
与所有资源行业一样，石油和天然气行业也是一个周期性行业。通常情况下，经济低迷是低价买入一些优质资产的好时机。但除了未来需求的不确定性，以及西方国家的转型雄心之外，还有一个更为紧迫的问题：融资。
美联储对通胀采取的激进措施导致买家的借贷成本大幅上升，而与此同时，同样的通胀也在推高卖方的成本，从而损害卖方的利益。卖家不会低价出售资产，而买家无法获得低息贷款来购买昂贵的资产。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Plunging Gas Prices Could Kill Off $40 Billion In Deals
· Dealmaking in the U.S. oil and gas patch declined last year to the lowest level since 2005.
· Recently, M&A activity fell even further along with a slide in gas prices.
· Rystad Energy data suggests that $40 billion in energy deals may remain unsold.
Last year, mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. oil and gas industry declined to the lowest level since 2005, with 160 deals completed despite booming oil and gas prices. Yet most of these deals were for top-quality assets at top prices. The industry was doing well and could afford billion-dollar mergers. Now, things are changing.
The Wall Street Journal reported recently that merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. oil and gas space had dropped off a cliff as natural gas prices plummeted. The predominantly warm winter and abundant supply thanks to strong overseas demand have combined to push benchmark prices to below $3 since December and, according to industry insiders, planned deals are being canceled or delayed.
According to Rystad Energy data cited by the Wall Street Journal, there are currently some 15 deals in the U.S. oil and gas space that face an uncertain future. Their combined value is $40 billion, and some of them may well remain unsold—especially if they focus>“I am well aware of multiple transactions that were in the works and stalled because gas prices have gone down. There were a lot of exits planned for this year and I think many of those may get delayed,” Guggenheim Securities senior managing director Muhammad Laghari told the WSJ.
One would think that with prices down, the companies put up for sale would agree to a lower price, but it appears that the sellers are not offering discounts while buyers are getting anxious about the future trajectory of gas prices. As a result,>Private equity is also canceling its M&A plans in the U.S. natural gas space because of the price drop. It seems the cheaper natural gas is, the lower appetite buyers have for gas assets despite the upbeat outlook for future demand, specifically for U.S. natural gas.
Wood Mackenzie, for instance, recently forecasted that the U.S. could see new LNG export capacity worth $100 billion get built over the next five years. The consultancy said that “based>This certainly sounds like guaranteed long-term demand for that very same gas that currently sells for a little over $2 per million British thermal units and that last year hit $9 per mmBtu. Even with that guaranteed long-term demand, however, potential buyers remain reluctant to commit. Because uncertainty has always been the name of the game, but now it’s greater than ever.
The biggest source of guaranteed demand for U.S. LNG is currently Europe. Eager to switch its gas dependence>While there have been several long-term deals closed by European buyers of U.S. LNG, most of the volumes that the continent receives are sourced in the spot market. That’s because Europe, and the European Union specifically, has a reputation to uphold, and that’s the reputation of a bloc entirely dedicated to a net-zero future in which there is no place for fossil fuels.
This is the source of the uncertainty that has become the new normal in oil and gas. Despite clear evidence that the world still needs massive amounts of both oil and gas—and plenty of coal, too—the net-zero push of European and North American governments is casting a shadow over the long-term prospects of the industry and sapping acquisition appetite.
The oil and gas industry is a cyclical>The Fed’s aggressive take on inflation has led to much higher borrowing costs for buyers at a time when that same inflation is hurting sellers by pushing their costs higher. Sellers won’t sell on the cheap. Buyers can’t get cheap loans to buy expensive assets.
