中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油2月27日报道，麦肯锡公司的最新分析显示，北美上游市场预计将迎来新一波并购浪潮，这是由高运营自由现金流推动的。
该报告分析了北美25家主要勘探和生产（E&P）公司的历史现金流以及预计的运营和财务业绩。预计当前运营现金流将保持较高水平，2023年的水平在700亿至900亿美元之间，2027年的水平将在500亿至700亿美元之间——即使油价降至每桶65至70美元。
例如，从2021到2022年，行业债务负担减少了250亿美元，预计到2027年将再减少150亿至200亿美元。随着债务负担的减轻，回报股东价值将成为优先事项，麦肯锡预计明年股息将攀升至300亿至400亿美元。
但随着大量现金，这些传统杠杆将触及自然上限。麦肯锡的分析表明，未来只有无机增长是无限的，这意味着现金将通过并购来调配。
麦肯锡咨询公司合伙人汤姆·格雷斯表示：“即使在这些现金使用已经耗尽之后，该行业在2023年及以后仍可能保持现金流正增长，其‘战争储备’为1000亿至2300亿美元。公司财务工具包中剩下的主要工具是通过并购保证现金流。业内资深人士讨论并购的一句常见的话是，‘你要么坐在谈判桌上，要么就在谈判桌。’这是一个严峻的现实，但拥有强大并购能力和大胆战略的公司往往会退出这一周期，并为财务保持充分的来源和健康运营。”
行业趋势表明，多种并购策略正在推动下一波整合浪潮。借势抄底整合的投资者可能会寻求增加规模，并利用运营优势来实现超额回报。
整合者可能会寻求在价值链的交叉或相邻部分增加资产，以扩大利润并提高财务运营弹性。这些勇敢的人可能会利用一部分现金储备来培育企业，以重塑其投资组合和在能源转型的地位。
麦肯锡咨询公司顾问杰里米·布朗补充道：“石油和天然气行业正进入一个前所未有的不确定性时期，其特点是能源转型、不断变化的投资者情绪和日益增长的能源安全担忧。现在不是享受最新成功喜悦的时候。与过去一样，成功的行业参与者将不懈努力，制定并实施一项植根于稳健并购投资的战略，以加快其未来发展。”
寿琳玲 编译自 世界石油
原文如下：
McKinsey & Company: North American upstream operating cashflows to reach up to $90 billion regardless of oil price drops
For example, industry debt load decreased by $25 billion from 2021 to 2022 and is forecast to fall by another $15-$20 billion by 2027. With debt burden reduced, returning shareholder value will be priority, and McKinsey expects dividends to climb to between $30-$40 billion over the next year.
But with a high volume of cash, these traditional levers will hit a natural cap. McKinsey’s analysis shows that>Tom Grace, Partner at McKinsey & Company said, “Even after these uses of cash have been exhausted, the industry is likely to remain cash-flow positive in 2023 and beyond, with a “war chest” of $100 billion to $230 billion. The primary tool left in the corporate finance toolkit is deployment of cash through M&A. A common refrain from industry veterans discussing M&A is, ‘You are either at the table, or you’re>Industry trends suggest that multiple M&A strategies are driving this next wave of consolidation. Basin consolidators will likely look to add scale and leverage operational advantages to achieve outsized returns.
Integrators may seek to add assets in adjacent portions of the value chain to expand margins and increase resilience. The bold will probably use a portion of their cash stockpiles to seed businesses to reshape their portfolios and position for the energy transition.
Jeremy Brown, Consultant at McKinsey & Company added, “The oil and gas industry is entering a period of unprecedented uncertainty characterized by the energy transition, evolving investor sentiment, and mounting energy security concerns. Now is not the time to bask in the glow of recent success. As in the past, successful industry players will work tirelessly to define and deliver a strategy rooted in sound M&A investments to accelerate their future growth and performance.”
