美国著名能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹表示：全球低成本和低排放的油气储量都在减少
油气公司应专注于减少现有项目的排放，并优先考虑低成本、低排放的未来项目
由于更严格的排放规定，许多在其他情况下具有经济可行性的石油和天然气储量不再具有经济可行性
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年2月22日报道，今年全球原油需求量可能会达到创纪录的高点，而且在很长一段时间内，可能没有足够的原油产量来满足这一需求。这似乎是最近一系列关于化石燃料未来的新闻报道和预测的要点。
2023年的全球原油需求预测是由国际能源署（IEA）做出的，后者支持逐步淘汰化石燃料。最近，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）首席执行官和阿联酋能源部长均发出了石油短缺可能即将到来的警告。现在，伍德麦肯兹也加入了这个悲观预测者的行列，对世界最优质的石油和天然气储量发出了警告。
这家美国著名能源咨询公司在一份新报告中表示，全球低成本和低排放的石油和天然气库存量都在减少，油气行业需要迅速采取行动，尽早应对这一事实。
世界已注意到全球石油和天然气总储量丰富，已发现和潜在的储量足以满足到2050年的两倍需求，但重要的并不是石油和天然气的总储量。伍德麦肯兹分析师关注的重点是那些开发成本低、碳排放不高的油气储量。
这些特定油气储量是满足油气公司到2050年基本石油和天然气需求情景所需储量的一半。更糟糕的是，根据伍德麦肯兹的说法，即使在可再生能源加速转型导致石油和天然气需求大幅下降的情况下，石油和天然气的需求也将超过伍德麦肯兹所说的有利的石油和天然气储量。
这家美国能源分析公司已经确定的问题与人们对石油和天然气的看法变化有很大关系。虽然所有的石油和天然气对大多数能源转型的支持者来说有害，但也有一些人承认，如果我们突然完全停止使用石油和天然气，这种能源转型就无法实现。
化石燃料对于人类文明的运行仍然是必不可少的。就连美国执政者也在国情咨文中承认了这一点。就在2月21日，欧盟未能就逐步淘汰化石燃料的计划达成一致。
然而，由于转型和西方国家政府的坚定支持，许多在其他情况下在经济上可行的石油和天然气储量不再具有经济可行性，因为开采它们将涉及大量碳排放。因此，伍德麦肯兹认为，这些资产已成为不利资产。因此，油气行业需要专注优质资产，才能在能源转型中立足。
在发现问题后，伍德麦肯兹继续为油气行业提供了一个三管齐下的解决方案。首先，油气公司需要更新他们的投资组合，专注于所谓的优质资产，这些资产通常是较新的油气田。其次，油气生产商需要降低现有资产的碳排放足迹。最后，油气生产商可以减少对石油和天然气的依赖，并向生物燃料等替代能源多元化发展。
当然，随着全球石油需求被证明有弹性，还有另一种选择——开发伍德麦克兹所说的尽管排放足迹较高处于不利地位的油气资源。我们在欧盟有一个新的例子，欧盟在很长一段时间内都不想建设液化天然气进口基础设施，直到欧盟意识到必须这样做。
对于能源转型的拥护者来说，这可能不是一个令人满意的解决方案，但如果只关注顶级石油和天然气储量，它将导致全球石油稀缺和价格高企。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
The World’s Best Oil Reserves May Shrink Because Of Tight Emissions Rules
· WoodMac: global reserves of both low-cost and low-emission oil and gas stocks are dwindling.
· Oil companies should focus>· Many oil and gas reserves that would be economically viable under other circumstances are no longer economically viable because of stricter emission rules.
Oil demand this year could reach a record high, and there may not be enough oil to cover this demand for much longer. This seems to be the gist of a slew of recent news reports and forecasts about our fossil fuel future.
The 2023 demand forecast was made by the International Energy Agency, which champions the phase-out of fossil fuels. The warnings that a shortage may well be imminent came, most recently, from Aramco’s CEO and the energy minister of the UAE. And now, Wood Mac has joined the band of grim forecasters with a warning of its own, about the world’s top-quality oil and gas reserves.
In a new report, the energy consultancy said that global reserves of both low-cost and low-emission oil and gas stocks are dwindling, and the industry needs to snap into action and deal with the fact sooner rather than later.
Noting that total oil and gas reserves in the world are plentiful, with discovered and potential reserves enough to cover demand until 2050 twice over. But it’s not total oil and gas reserves that are important. It’s the reserves that are both cheap to develop and not too carbon-intensive that are the focus>These specific reserves are half of what is needed to satisfy the firm’s base-case oil and gas demand scenario for the period until 2050. Even worse, according to Wood Mac, even in a scenario with much-reduced oil and gas demand because of an accelerated transition to renewables, there will be more oil and gas demand than what Wood Mac calls advantaged reserves of oil and gas.
The problem that the analytical firm has identified certainly has a lot to do with the change of perspective>Fossil fuels are still essential for the running of human civilization. Even the U.S Administration acknowledged it in his State of the Union Address. And the European Union just yesterday failed to agree>Yet because of the transition and the solid backing it has from governments in the West, many oil and gas reserves that would be economically viable under other circumstances are no longer economically viable because their extraction would involve substantial emissions. These have become, therefore, disadvantaged assets, according to Wood Mac. So the industry needs to focus>After identifying the problem, the company goes>Of course, with global oil demand proving as resilient as it is, there is also another option-developing the resources that Wood Mac calls disadvantaged despite their higher emission footprint. We have a fresh example in the EU, which did not want to build LNG import infrastructure for a long time until it realized it had to.
This might not look like a palatable solution to energy transition advocates, but it would certainly look palatable to everyone who stands to descend into energy poverty if an exclusive focus on top-tier oil and gas reserves leads to global scarcity and the resulting high prices.
