中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工新闻网2月22日报道，当地时间周三美国天然气期货上涨逾2%，因预测天气将比此前预期的更冷，在大幅下跌后投资者回补空头头寸。截至美国东部时间上午9时55分(格林尼治时间14时55分)，纽约商品交易所3月份即月天然气期货价格上涨4.4美分，涨幅2.1%，至2.12美元/百万英热单位。
在隔夜交易中，价格自2020年9月以来首次短暂跌破每百万英热单位2美元的水平。自去年8月突破10美元以来，美国天然气价格已下跌近80%。StoneX Financial Inc.负责能源的高级副总裁托马斯·萨尔（Thomas Saal）表示，投机者一直是最好的销售者。投机者只有一种方法可以在空头头寸上获利，那就是回购。
Saal补充道，供应是充足的，只是需求一直很低，因为温暖的天气将天然气价格压低到几年来从未见过的水平。据数据提供商Refinitiv预计，未来两周美国本土48个州的取暖度日（HDD）为347天，高于周二预测的341天。每年这个时候的正常情况是HDD 350天。HDD通过测量一天平均温度低于65华氏度(18摄氏度)的度数来估计家庭和企业的供暖需求。
在供应方面，Refinitiv表示，2月份迄今为止，美国本土48个州的日均天然气产量为974亿立方英尺，低于1月份的983亿立方英尺，由于2月初几个生产盆地的油气井因寒潮来临冻结。而2022年11月的月度记录为998亿立方英尺/日。
据Refinitiv预测，包括出口在内的美国天然气需求本周为1194亿立方英尺/日，而下周的天然气需求则增至1206亿立方英尺/日。雷斯塔能源驻纽约的天然气市场分析师Ade Allen表示：“即使需求上升，天然气供应的增长也可能在2023年第二季度就出现供过于求的局面。尽管自由港液化天然气重启，但我们的短期前景仍显示出不容乐观的局面。”
周二，联邦监管机构批准了自由港液化天然气终端在得克萨斯州的出口工厂的部分重启，包括两条液化生产线车辆、两个储罐以及码头。据Refinitiv称，这家美国第二大液化天然气出口工厂有望在周三连续第十天从管道中抽取约50亿立方英尺/日的天然气。自由港液化天然气终端在全负荷运行时，可将约21亿立方英尺/日的天然气转化为液化天然气用于出口。然而，能源监管机构和分析师表示，他们预计自由港液化天然气终端将在3月中旬或之后恢复全面商业运营。
郝芬 译自 天然气加工新闻网
原文如下：
U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2%>U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2%>Prices briefly dipped below the $2 per mmBtU level for the first time since September 2020 in overnight trading. U.S. natgas prices have fallen nearly 80% since scaling above $10 last August. "Speculators have been the best sellers. There's>Supply is adequate, it's just that the demand has been poor because of the warm weather that has bought down natural gas prices to the levels that haven't been seen in a few years, Saal added. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 347 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, up from a forecast of 341 HDDs>On the supply side, Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was at 97.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, down from 98.3 bcfd in January after extreme cold froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins earlier in February. That compared with a monthly record of 99.8 bcfd in November 2022.
Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 119.4 bcfd this week to 120.6 bcfd next week. "Even with a demand uptick, growth in gas supply may likely present an oversupply scenario as early as 2Q 2023," said Ade Allen, Rystad Energy's New York-based gas markets analyst. "Our short-term outlook continues to signal a bearish sentiment, despite the restart of Freeport LNG."
On Tuesday, federal regulators approved the partial restart of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas, including two liquefaction trains, two tanks, and one loop and dock each. The second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant was on track to pull in about 0.5 bcfd of gas from pipelines for the tenth day in a row on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv. Freeport LNG, when operating at full power, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. Energy regulators and analysts, however, have said they do not expect Freeport LNG to return to full commercial operation until mid-March or later.
