中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2023年2月16日报道，全球石油需求将何时见顶? 这取决于你问谁这个问题。
以惠誉解决方案为例，该公司油气业务副总监艾玛·理查兹表示，惠誉解决方案预计全球石油需求不会在2032年之前的预测期内见顶。
理查兹告诉美国钻井网站记者：“尽管预测这个达峰时间还存在很多不确定性，但根据增长趋势，全球石油需求可能会在本世纪30年代中期达到峰值。”
理查兹说：“发达市场和新兴市场的情况截然不同。我们预计，前者将从2025年起陷入结构性的和深化的下滑，但这将被未来十年新兴市场的需求增长轻松抵消。”
理查兹说：“新兴市场需求更为强劲——经济和人口基本面表明，整体能源需求将强劲增长，而在能源结构中取代石油的进程在大多数市场都面临诸多阻力。然而，到21世纪30年代中期，新兴市场的需求增长似乎将很疲弱，从而拉动消费超过其峰值。”
能源研究机构Enverus Intelligence Research高级副总裁阿尔·萨拉萨尔对美国钻井网站记者表示，该公司认为，“由于悲观的人口统计资料、轻型载货汽车的电气化、积极的燃油经济性标准，全球石油总需求将在本十年的后5年内达到峰值和稳定”。
萨拉萨尔补充说：“然而，除了需求方面的因素外，全球石油供应增长不足也是导致需求达到峰值的原因。”
国际能源署和bp的展望
国际能源署(IEA)在2022年10月发布的最新《世界能源展望》报告中强调，在不同的情景下，全球石油需求会有不同的峰值。
根据IEA的说法，在已宣布的承诺情景(APS)下，净零承诺将导致石油需求在2024年达到峰值，并概述了在既定政策情景(STEPS)下，全球石油需求将在2035年后达到峰值并趋于稳定。
英国石油公司（bp）在今年1月底发布的最新能源展望报告中指出，“未来10年左右，全球石油需求将趋于平稳，之后在展望的其余时间里将出现下降，部分原因是随着汽车效率提高，替代能源的使用量越来越多，公路运输中的石油使用量将下降”。
bp的能源展望报告概述了三种情景——加速、净零和新势头——并展望了到2050年的能源体系。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
When Will Oil Demand Peak?
When will oil demand peak? It depends>Fitch Solutions, for example, doesn’t see oil demand peaking within its forecast period, which runs to 2032, according to Emma Richards, an associate director of oil and gas at the company.
“based>“The picture is very different across developed and emerging markets. The former we forecast to fall into structural and deepening decline from 2025>“EM demand is more robust – the economic and demographic fundamentals point to a strong rise in overall energy demand growth and progress in displacing oil in the energy mix faces a number of headwinds in most markets. By the mid-2030s, though, it seems probable that EM growth will be sufficiently weak to pull consumption past its peak,” Richards went>Al Salazar, a senior vice president at Enverus Intelligence Research, told Rigzone that the company believes total global oil demand will peak and plateau “sometime in the back half of this decade due to 1/ bearish demographics, 2/ the electrification of the light duty vehicle fleet, and 3/ aggressive fuel economy standards”.
“However,>IEA, BP Outlooks
In its latest World Energy Outlook report, which was released in October 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted that oil demand has different peaks under different scenarios.
Under an Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), net zero commitments lead to a peak in oil demand in 2024, according to the IEA, which outlined that under a Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) scenario, global oil demand peaks and levels off after 2035.
In BP’s latest energy outlook, which was released at the end of January this year, the company noted that “global oil demand plateaus over the next 10 years or so before declining over the rest of the outlook, driven in part by the falling use of oil in road transport as vehicles become more efficient and are increasingly fueled by alternative energy sources”.
BP’s energy outlook outlined three scenarios - Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum - and looked at the energy system out to 2050.
