中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年2月17日报道，由于气候温和，且整个欧洲大陆的天然气库存高于平均水平，对今年冬季天然气危机的担忧继续消退，欧洲基准天然气价格周五（2月17日）跌至18个月来最低水平。
周五上午在阿姆斯特丹，TTF最新的即月天然气期货价格下跌了6%，自2021年8月以来首次跌破每兆瓦时50欧元(53美元)的门槛。
从2022年8月开始，目前的基准气价比每兆瓦时300欧元(318美元)的历史高点下跌了85%以上，仅今年到目前为止就下跌了35%左右。
盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论2月17日天然气价格下跌时表示：“欧盟天然气交易价格17个月来首次低于每兆瓦时50欧元，同样重要的是，2023/2024年度和2024/2025年度冬季气价也继续走软，交易价格均低于60欧元。”
欧洲许多地区的天气更加温和，天然气库存水平高于五年同期的平均水平。
但欧洲天然气价格下跌可能会刺激工业部门的需求增加，以及亚洲的需求增加，后者将与欧洲争夺现货液化天然气供应。
今年冬天，欧洲似乎已经摆脱了缺气困境，但明年冬天可能会更加困难。分析人士警告说，欧洲天然气价格的进一步下跌是有限的。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
European Natural Gas Prices Sink To 18-Month Low
Europe’s benchmark natural gas price fell>On Friday morning in Amsterdam, the front-month futures at the TTF hub were down by 6% and fell below the threshold of 50 euros ($53) per megawatt-hour (MWh) for the first time since August 2021.
Prices are now more than 85% down from the record high of 300 euros ($318) per MWh from August 2022, and down by around 35% so far this year alone.
“EU gas trades below €50/MWh for the first time in 17 months, and equally important, the winter 23/24 and 24/25 continues to soften as well, both trading below €60,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said>Weather in many parts of Europe is milder, and inventory levels are above the five-year average for this time of the year.
But the falling price in Europe could incentivize more demand in the industrial sector, as well as more demand in Asia, which would compete for spot LNG supply with Europe.
Europe looks to be out of the woods this winter, but next winter could be more difficult. Analysts warn that further downside to European gas prices is limited.
