中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带2月10日消息称，在最新一轮激励措施的推动下，到2030年，绿色氢产量的最新预测是2400万吨，电解槽容量为212吉瓦。
如果说2022年是绿色氢经济的涡轮增压器，那么2023年是这一新兴行业漫长跋涉的开始，它将成为脱碳、转型和能源安全战略的支柱。Rystad Energy研究发现，从2022年到2023年，电解槽产能预计将增长186%。
因此，人们的注意力转向电解槽生产所需的供应链能力。尽管近年来该行业增长所需的许多原材料价格都很高，但Rystad Energy预计，随着绿色氢应用的增长，以及成本削减的实现，2022年至2027年期间电解槽服务价格通胀将下降10%-15%。
目前，两种最常见的电解槽技术是碱性水电解(AWE)和聚合物电解质膜(PEM)。
PEM和AWE价格在过去两年都经历了特别高的飙升——PEM电解槽组件的平均价格上涨了约30%，而AWE的成本在2020—2022年期间上涨了约21%。2021年1月至2023年1月期间铂和铱价格的波动导致了最近的飙升对催化剂涂层膜的冲击，并突显了在PEM电解槽中使用铱和铂催化剂所面临的重大挑战。
不幸的是，价格波动并不是过去的事情，因为这两种原材料都是世界上最稀有的。铱在地壳中的含量仅为十亿分之二(ppb)，铂的含量为十亿分之五。
目前，南非占全球铱供应的83%，铂供应的70%。这些金属的价格可能会在2023年上涨，因为南非老化、容易故障的燃煤电厂在停电期间威胁到生产。然而，国际可再生能源机构报告称，预计未来铱和铂在催化剂涂层膜中的使用可分别限制在0.4克/千瓦和0.1克/千瓦。
曹海斌 摘译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Green Hydrogen Production Growth Could Lead To Iridium Shortage
The latest projection for green hydrogen production by 2030 is 24 million tons from 212 GW of electrolyzers, fueled by the latest round of incentives.
If 2022 turbocharged the green hydrogen economy, then 2023 is the start of a long slog for this nascent sector that is set to be the backbone for decarbonization, transition, and energy security strategies. Rystad Energy research has found that electrolyzer capacity is expected to grow by 186% from 2022 to 2023.
Attention is therefore turning to the supply chain capacity necessary for electrolyzer production. Even though many of the raw materials needed for the sector’s growth have seen high price tags in recent years, Rystad Energy expects a 10-15% decrease in electrolyzer service price inflation between 2022 and 2027, as green hydrogen adoption grows, and cost cuts are realized.
Currently, the two most common electrolyzer technologies are alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) and polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM).
Both PEM and AWE have experienced particularly high inflation in the past two years –>Unfortunately, price volatility is not a thing of the past as both raw materials are some of the rarest in the world. Iridium is>South Africa is responsible for 83% of the global iridium supply and 70% of the platinum supply at present. Prices for these metals are likely to increase in 2023 due to South Africa's aging, fault-prone coal-fired power stations that threaten production amid power outages. However, the International Renewable Energy Agency reported that the expected future use of iridium and platinum in catalyst-coated membranes can be limited to 0.4 g/kW and 0.1 g/kW, respectively.
