中国石化新闻网讯 据烃加工2023年2月13日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)2月13日发布的2月份短期能源展望(STEO)报告预测，未来两年美国炼油厂利用率将保持在90%以上。在美国炼油厂利用率在2020年和2021年呈现较低水平之后，美国这个行业正在回到更典型的水平。EIA预测，2023年美国炼油厂的平均利用率将达到90.8%，然后在2024年小幅下降至90.3%。
炼油厂利用率是指炼油厂作为原料使用的原油和其他油类的数量除以该炼油厂的总产能。2020年，美国炼油厂平均利用率降至78.8%，是EIA自1997年开始收集这一数据以来的最低年度利用率，但到2022年，平均利用率接近疫情前的水平，超过91%。从年平均来看，由于维修期和季节性需求减少，整个炼油厂的利用率很少会攀升到远高于95%的水平。
在今年2月发布的STEO报告中，EIA预测了美国到2024年的石油炼制价格和产量。全球成品油价格和裂解价差(代表炼油厂利润率的估计值)在2022年大幅增加，提高了炼油厂的利用率。EIA计算裂解价差的方法是用三分之二加仑汽油和三分之一加仑柴油的综合价格减去一加仑原油的价格。
EIA预计，2023年美国汽油和柴油的石油产品价格将低于2022年。尽管如此，2023年的石油产品价格仍将高于疫情前的价格，特别是炼油厂在春季进行维护。春季利用率低将限制夏季之前的生产，并鼓励炼油厂在夏季和不进行维护时保持高利用率。
EIA预计2023年和2024年经济增长将放缓，与2022年相比，汽油和柴油消费将减少，导致石油产品价格逐渐下降。EIA还预测，由于炼油厂的高利用率，成品油产量的增加将有助于降低价格。从2月早些时候开始，欧盟禁止从产能大国进口精制石油产品，这可能会带来额外的供应中断，并给EIA的预测带来巨大的不确定性。
李峻 编译自 烃加工
原文如下：
EIA forecasts U.S. refining utilization to remain above 90% through 2024
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that U.S. refinery utilization will remain above 90% over the next two years. The industry is returning to more typical rates after low refinery utilization in 2020 and 2021. The EIA forecast U.S. refinery utilization will average 90.8% in 2023 and then decrease slightly to 90.3% in 2024.
Refinery utilization is the amount of crude oil and other oils used as input at a refinery divided by the total capacity at that refinery. In 2020, average refinery utilization dropped to 78.8%, the lowest annual rate since the EIA began collecting this data in 1997, but by 2022, utilization rates averaged closer to pre-pandemic levels at more than 91%.>In the February 2023 STEO, the EIA forecasts prices and volumes of petroleum refining in the United States through 2024. Global refined product prices and crack spreads, which represent an estimate of refinery margins, increased substantially in the U.S. in 2022, increasing refinery utilization. The EIA calculates the 3-2-1 crack spread by subtracting the price of a gallon of crude oil (the input) from the combined price of two-thirds of a gallon of gasoline and>The EIA expects petroleum product prices for gasoline and diesel will be lower in 2023 than in 2022. Nevertheless, petroleum product prices in 2023 will remain high compared with pre-pandemic prices, especially as refiners undergo maintenance in the spring. Low spring utilization will limit production before the summer and encourage refineries to maintain high utilization during the summer and when not undergoing maintenance.
The EIA expects slower economic growth in 2023 and 2024, which would reduce gasoline and diesel consumption compared with 2022, leading to a gradual decrease in petroleum product prices. The organization also forecasts that increased production of finished petroleum products as a result of high refinery utilization rates will contribute to lower prices. The ban on imports of refined petroleum products into the EU, which began earlier this month, poses a risk of additional disruptions and brings significant uncertainty to the EIA's forecast.
