中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻网2月8日报道，根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据显示，可再生能源将在未来三年主导世界电力供应的增长，因为到2025年，可再生能源和核能将满足全球需求增长的绝大部分。
据IEA的一份新报告称，这将抑制电力行业碳排放的大幅上升。
据IEA的《2023年电力市场报告》表示，继去年略微放缓至2%之后，预计未来三年全球电力需求增长将加速至3%。
亚洲的新兴经济体和发展中经济体是加快这一速度的驱动力，这一速度较疫情前几年2.4%的平均增长率有所提高。
预计未来3年全球电力需求增长的70%以上将来自印度和东南亚。与此同时，发达经济体正寻求扩大电力使用，以取代交通、供暖和工业等部门的化石燃料。
IEA执行主任法提赫·比罗尔表示，世界对电力的需求将加速增长，未来三年将使日本当前的电力消耗量增加一倍以上。并补充道，好消息是，可再生能源和核电发展迅速，足以满足几乎所有这些新增需求，这表明我们正接近电力行业排放的临界点。各国政府现在需要让低排放能源更快地增长并降低排放，这样世界才能在实现气候目标的同时确保电力供应安全。
据报告称，可再生能源的强劲增长意味着，其在全球发电结构中的份额预计将从2022年的29%上升到2025年的35%，而燃煤和燃气发电的份额将下降。因此，全球发电的二氧化碳强度将在未来几年继续下降。
郝芬 译自 油气新闻网
原文如下：
Renewables to meet electricity demand growth in 3 years'
Renewables are set to dominate the growth of the world’s electricity supply over the next three years, as together with nuclear power, they will meet the vast majority of the increase in global demand through 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
This will check significant rises in the power sector’s carbon emissions, said a new IEA report.
The growth in world electricity demand is expected to accelerate to an average of 3 per cent over the next three years after slowing slightly last year to 2 per cent, said the IEA’s Electricity Market Report 2023.
Emerging and developing economies in Asia are the driving forces behind this faster pace, which is a step up from the average growth of 2.4 percent during the years before the pandemic.
More than 70 per cent of the increase in global electricity demand over the next three years is expected to come from India and Southeast Asia. At the same time, advanced economies are seeking to expand electricity use to displace fossil fuels in sectors such as transport, heating and industry.
“The world’s growing demand for electricity is set to accelerate, adding more than double Japan’s current electricity consumption over the next three years,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“The good news is that renewables and nuclear power are growing quickly enough to meet almost all this additional appetite, suggesting we are close to a tipping point for power sector emissions. Governments now need to enable low-emissions sources to grow even faster and drive down emissions so that the world can ensure secure electricity supplies while reaching climate goals,” Birol added.
The strong growth of renewables means their share of the global power generation mix is forecast to rise from 29 percent in 2022 to 35 percent in 2025, with the shares of coal- and gas-fired generation falling. As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation will continue to decrease in the coming years, the report said.
