中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带2月10日报道，在周四发给钻机地带的一份声明中，能源和环境地理分析公司Kayrros指出，相对于柴油，航空燃料的价格已经达到了12年高点。
Kayrros指出，疫情防控措施放开促进了全球航空业的发展，该公司表示，在疫情之后，全球航空业仍在复苏。根据Kayrros援引的对ADS-B数据信号分析数据显示，上月航空燃料需求同比增长达20%。
Kayrros在声明中概述道，航空货运数据表明，全球经济可能不会随着航空燃油价格的上涨而增长。据Kayrros称，客运需求的增长现在超过了航空货运，这可能是经济的一个令人担忧的迹象。
Kayrros总裁Antoine Rostand在一份公司声明中表示，航空货运被认为是一个主要的经济指标。并补充道，这就是为什么我们的数据显示，航空货运需求的下降可能是经济的一个危险信号……目前，客运航班的激增，尤其是低成本航空公司的客运航班的激增，已经远远抵消了这一点。但这将继续导致价格上涨，从而降低航空货运需求。
航空燃料价格预测
在1月31日发给钻机地带的一份报告中，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司表示，该公司已将2023年全球航空燃料年均价预测上调至每桶140美元。
该公司强调，这一数字比惠誉解决方案公司此前预计的每桶127美元的价格增长了10.5%。惠誉解决方案在报告中概述称，这一增长反映了“全球供应趋紧，各地区航空旅行需求复苏”。
惠誉解决方案(Fitch Solutions)的报告称，短期内航空燃油价格的前景倾向于上行，但我们对目前现货水平的价格持褒贬不一的看法。该报告将全球现货均价定在每桶166美元。
该报告补充道，美国市场的高波动性在未来几个月可能会缓和，使全球市场平均水平在短期内出现看跌趋势。而欧洲的油价预计将在短期内上涨。
需求增长
在1月发布的最新石油市场报告中，国际能源署（IEA）预测，2023年全球石油需求将增加190万桶/日，达到创纪录的1.017亿桶/日。
该报告概述称，航空燃料将成为最大的增长来源，每天增加84万桶。
IEA石油市场报告称，今年石油需求可能会增加190万桶/天，达到1.017亿桶/天，为历史最高水平，随着供应在制裁的全面影响下放缓，这将收紧平衡。
IEA的下一份石油市场报告目前定于2月15日发布。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Jet Fuel Prices Hit 12-Year Highs
In a statement sent to Rigzone>Kayrros noted that the reopening has boosted the global aviation sector, which it said is still recovering after Covid. Year>In the statement, Kayrros outlined that data>“Air freight is considered a leading economic indicator,” Kayrros’ President Antoine Rostand said in a company statement.
“That’s why the drop in air cargo demand which our data show could be a red flag for the economy … For now, this has been more than offset by the surge in passenger flights, particularly>Jet Fuel Price Forecast
In a report sent to Rigzone>The figure marked an increase of 10.5 percent over Fitch Solutions’ previous view for prices of $127 per barrel, the company highlighted. Fitch Solutions outlined in the report that the increase reflected “tighter supplies globally and resurgent demand for air travel from all regions ”.
“The outlook for jet fuel prices in the short-term is tilted to the upside but we hold a mixed view for prices from current spot levels,” the Fitch Solutions report, which pegged the global spot average at $166 per barrel, stated.
“The high volatility seen in the U.S. market is likely to moderate in the coming months, giving the global market average a bearish tilt in the near-term. While in Europe prices are forecast to rise in the short-term>Demand Growth
In its latest oil market report, which was released in January, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that global oil demand is set to rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2023 to a record 101.7 million barrels per day.
Jet fuel will be the largest source of growth, up 840,000 barrels per day, the report outlined.
“This year could see oil demand rise by 1.9 million barrels per day to reach 101.7 million barrels per day, the highest ever, tightening the balances as supply slows under the full impact of sanctions,” the IEA oil market report stated.
The IEA’s next oil market report is currently scheduled to be released on February 15.
