中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2月10日报道，高盛在一份新报告中表示，该行仍预计布伦特原油价格今年将触及每桶100美元，但仅在12月，而此前预计最快在2023年年中就会达到每桶100美元，并将今年布伦特原油均价从98美元下调至92美元。
尽管下调了油价预期，但高盛(Goldman Sachs)仍是总体上最看好原油和大宗商品的华尔街银行之一。高盛仍然相信，一个新的超级周期正在形成。
然而，彭博社援引高盛的报告称，美国的预期供应增加可能导致2023年石油日产量略微过剩15万桶。
“在需求方面，欧洲、美国和亚洲的预估下调——反映出暖冬和以蒸馏油为基础的气转油损失。”路透社援引该银行的话说。
高盛预计，在解除新冠疫情限制后，亚洲大国今年的石油需求将增加110万桶/天。
该行预计明年布伦特原油均价为每桶100美元，低于此前预测的每桶105美元。
高盛策略师在报告中评论预估下调时写道：“这一调整反映出我们2023年的余额略有软化。”
今年1月，高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，全球石油需求的强劲增长将推动油价今年突破100美元，而布伦特原油到第四季度可能达到每桶105美元。
12月中旬，高盛预测，供应短缺和对新供应的投资不足将导致2023年大宗商品迎来丰收之年。该行策略师表示，大宗商品将成为2023年表现最佳的资产类别。由于经济增长预期放缓，2023年第一季度的表现可能比今年剩余时间更为平淡，但石油、天然气和关键金属的低投资水平将继续支撑高盛所称的大宗商品新超级周期。
寿琳玲 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Goldman Sachs: Oil Prices Won’t Hit $100 Until December
Goldman Sachs still expects Brent Crude prices to hit $100 per barrel this year, but>Despite the cut in oil price forecasts, Goldman Sachs is still>However, higher expected supply the United States could lead to a slight surplus of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, according to Goldman’s note quoted by Bloomberg.
“On the demand side, downgrades in Europe, the United States, and Asia — reflecting a warm winter and the loss of distillate-based gas-to-oil switching — offset much of the upgrade,” the bank said, as carried by Reuters.
Goldman Sachs expects the oil demand of the biggest country in Aisa to grow by 1.1 million bpd this year, after the reopening from Covid restrictions.
For next year, the bank sees Brent Crude prices averaging $100 per barrel, down from its previous projection of an average of $105 a barrel Brent.
“This adjustment reflects a modest softening to our 2023 balance,” Goldman’s strategists wrote in the note, commenting>In January, Goldman Sachs said that solid growth in global oil demand was set to drive oil prices to above $100 this year and Brent Crude could trade at $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter.
In mid-December, Goldman predicted that supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply would result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023. Commodities are set to be the best-performing asset class in 2023, the bank’s strategists said. The first quarter of 2023 could be more underwhelming than the rest of the year due to the expected slowdown in economies, but the low levels of investment in oil, gas, and key metals will continue to underpin what Goldman has called a new supercycle in commodities.
