1月31日上午，欧洲TTF基准天然气期货价格上涨11%，从上周17%的暴跌中恢复
挪威天然气加工计划的意外中断和空头回补共同增加了天然气价格的上行压力
下周，欧洲的气温可能会低于最初的预期，这将在经历了迄今为止温和的冬季之后，提振对天然气的需求
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年1月31日报道，欧洲TTF基准天然气期货价格本周出现反弹，原因是交易商在即月合约到期时平仓，而且一些天气预报显示，欧洲北部和中部下周的天气比此前预期的要冷。
周二（1月31日）在阿姆斯特丹交易所开盘时，荷兰TTF基准天然气期货价格上涨11%，超过65美元(60欧元)/兆瓦时(MWh)，延续了周一的小幅上涨，并收复了上周价格暴跌17%的部分损失。
周一，天然气价格受到空头回补和挪威天然气加工厂意外停产的支撑。然而，风力发电预计仍将强劲，这可能会抑制一些燃气发电的需求。
但下周，气温可能会低于最初的预期，这将提振家庭供暖的需求。彭博社援引Maxar科技公司的天气模型称，欧洲北部和中部下周将再次出现寒冷天气。
不过，荷兰国际集团(ING)修正后的今年天然气前景显示，欧洲创纪录的天然气价格可能已经成为过去。
荷兰国际集团大宗商品策略主管沃伦·帕特森周一表示：“温和的天气和疲软的工业需求确保了天然气库存保持强劲。欧洲地区应该能轻松度过今年冬季，2023/2024年冬季前景看起来也会更好。”
荷兰国际集团预计，在2023年上半年，欧洲TTF天然气价格平均约为65-70美元/兆瓦时(约60-65欧元)，在今年下半年将上涨至81-87美元/兆瓦时(75-80欧元)。
帕特森说：“更舒适的储存环境确实使欧洲能够更好地应对2023/2024年的冬季。现在的情况显然不像几个月前那么可怕了。因此，进入下一个供暖季节，天然气价格将不会像最初预期的那样高。 ”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
European Natural Gas Prices Surge Ahead Of Cold Spell
· The Dutch TTF benchmark price jumped by 11%>· An unplanned outage at a Norwegian gas processing plan and short covering combined to add upward pressure to gas prices.
· Next week, temperatures could be lower than initially expected, which would boost demand for natural gas after a mild winter so far.
Europe’s benchmark gas prices have rebounded this week as traders closed short positions at the expiry of the front-month contract and some weather forecasts suggested colder weather in northern and central Europe next week than previously expected.
The Dutch TTF benchmark price jumped by 11% at over $65 (60 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) at the opening of trade in Amsterdam>On Monday, the prices were supported by short covering and an unplanned outage at a Norwegian gas processing plant. However, wind power generation is still expected to be strong, which could curb some demand for gas-fired power generation.
But next week, temperatures could be lower than initially expected, which would boost demand for household heating. Colder spells are set to return to northern and central Europe next week, according to weather models by Maxar Technologies Inc, cited by Bloomberg.
Still, the record gas prices in Europe could be behind us, according to ING’s revised outlook>“Mild weather and weak industrial demand have ensured that gas storage has remained strong. The region should get through this winter comfortably and prospects also look better for the 23/24 winter,” Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said>The bank expects the TTF price to average around $65-70 (60-65 euros) per MWh over the first half of 2023—around current levels, before increasing to $81-87 (75-80 euros) per MWh over the second half of the year.
“The more comfortable storage situation does put Europe in a better position to handle the 2023/24 winter. It certainly isn’t looking as dire as it did just several months ago. Therefore, prices do not need to go as high as originally expected going into the next heating season,” ING’s Patterson said.
