在大西洋彼岸，美国炼油厂正在为维护季节做好准备
在全球最大的石油生产国，中间馏分油库存低于正常水平，需求仍然相当强劲
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网报道，法国能源巨头道达尔能源公司在法国运营的3家炼油厂1月21日暂停了批发市场汽油和柴油供应，其中一家炼油厂还将炼油厂开工率降至最低。
在大西洋彼岸，美国炼油厂正在为维护季节做好准备。据路透社报道，第一季度停产维修的炼油厂数目将是以往的两倍，以期弥补疫情大流行期间的维修延误。届时汽油和柴油的产量将减少，出口到欧洲的燃料数量也将减少。
据路透社报道，在禁运之前，欧洲的交易商们正在疯狂购买柴油，流入油库的柴油数量达到了一年来的最高水平。但2月6日发生了什么?
有一件事是肯定的：美国将无法介入并提供帮助，就像它帮助液化天然气运输以取代管道天然气一样。美国无法提供帮助的原因是，它自己国内的柴油供应情况相当糟糕。
事实上，彭博社报道称，柴油货物正从欧洲的原目的地转移到美国的新目的地。彭博社报道指出，去年12月的寒流导致墨西哥湾沿岸三分之一的炼油产能暂时关闭，最近纽约港的一条燃料管道也关闭了。
尽管美国能源信息署(Energy Information Administration)预测，由于需求疲软，今年美国汽油和柴油价格将双双走低，但美国这个全球最大石油生产国的中间馏分油库存目前仍低于往常水平，而需求仍相当强劲。
因此，美国没有足够的柴油让人放心，而欧盟的柴油就更少了，再过几天，贸易商就无法获得足够燃料。在那之后，西方将需要向东方寻找能源，为地球上的每一个经济体提供动力。
印度炼油商也准备为柴油出口提供帮助。伍德麦肯兹最近发布了一份亚洲柴油产量增加的预测，指出印度、日本和韩国是这一增长背后的驱动因素。
中东石油生产商也随时准备向他们的欧洲和美国客户提供一桶柴油。阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯正在扩建炼油厂，在恰当的时候提高炼油产能。一些分析人士说，中东的燃料出口商甚至可能购买燃料，然后再转卖给欧洲。
大宗商品提供商Kpler的分析师维克多·卡托纳告诉“中东之眼”记者：“像撒盐哥一样撒上几滴别人的柴油，就不再是被禁的柴油了。”
从本质上讲，2月份的禁运将进一步改变石油市场的贸易路线。就像越来越多的原油流向亚洲，越来越多的中东原油流向欧洲一样，随着中东原油流向欧洲，越来越多的燃料将开始流向非洲和拉丁美洲。亚洲的燃料也将从其他地方转向欧洲。
据伍德麦肯兹研究主管马克·威廉姆斯说，产能大国的燃料被重新转向拉丁美洲和非洲(以前是美国的燃料出口目的地)，将使更多的美国燃料出口到欧盟。
这自然会对价格产生影响，因为从中东到欧洲的一些航线相对较短，而其他航线，如亚洲到荷兰，将会更长，因此价格会更贵。再加上美国炼油厂维修季节的影响，柴油价格似乎很快就会上涨。
由于柴油是用来运输货物的，所以柴油越贵，货物就会越贵。因此，禁运将加剧已经令大西洋两岸政府担忧的通货膨胀。
也许这种影响只是暂时的，当新的出口路线牢固建立起来，欧洲的新供应商让炼油厂满负荷运转时，价格将会下降。或许欧洲和美国部分地区将面临更多能源方面的痛苦，而经济学家们则在争论什么才是真正的经济衰退，以及世界主要经济体是否已经陷入经济衰退。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Diesel Markets Brace For A Chaotic February
· Across the Atlantic, refiners are preparing for maintenance season.
· Inventories of middle distillates are lower than usual in the world’s largest oil producer, and demand is still reasonably strong.
Yesterday, strikes began at three refineries in France operated by TotalEnergies. The three facilities suspended gasoline and diesel deliveries for the wholesale market, and>Across the Atlantic, refiners are preparing for maintenance season. According to Reuters, this season will see twice as many refineries shut down for repairs to compensate for delays in maintenance during the pandemic. Less gasoline and diesel fuel will be produced and, consequently, less will be exported to Europe.
That would be the same Europe, which, as the European Union, declared an embargo>Ahead of the embargo, traders are>One thing is for certain: the United States will not be able to step in and help the way it helped with LNG deliveries as a replacement for the third producer’s pipeline gas. The reason that the United States will not be able to help is that its own supply situation with diesel fuel is pretty dire.
It’s so dire, in fact, that Bloomberg reported that diesel fuel cargos are being diverted from their original destinations in Europe to new>Inventories of middle distillates are lower than usual in the world’s largest oil producer, and demand is still reasonably strong, although the Energy Information Administration has forecast lower prices for both gasoline and diesel fuel this year because of weaker demand.
So, there’s not enough diesel for comfort in the United States, and there is even less diesel for comfort in the European Union, with just days until traders are cut off from access to the third producer’s fuels. After that, the collective West will need to look East for the fuel that powers every single economy>Indian refiners are also ready to help with diesel fuel exports. Wood Mackenzie recently issued a forecast for higher diesel fuel production across Asia, noting India, Japan, and South Korea as the drivers behind this increase.
Middle Eastern oil producers also stand ready to lend a barrel of diesel to their European and American clients. Refineries are being expanded in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, boosting output capacity at just the right time. And the Middle Eastern fuel exporters might even buy and then re-sell the third producer’s fuels to Europe, according to some analysts.
“Sprinkle it Salt Bae style with a few drops of someone else’s diesel, it’s no longer the third producer’s,” Viktor Katona, an analyst with Kpler, told Middle East Eye.
Essentially, the February embargo will further shift trade routes in the oil market. Just as a lot more the third producer’s crude is now going to Asia and more Middle Eastern oil is going to Europe, more Russian fuels will start going to Africa and Latin America as Middle Eastern fuels head for Europe. Asian fuel will also be redirected from everywhere else to Europe.
According to Wood Mackenzie research director Mark Williams, the third producer’s fuels getting redirected to Latin America and Africa—previously U.S. fuel export domains—will free more U.S. fuel for export to the European Union.
This will naturally have an impact>Because diesel is used for the transportation of goods, more expensive diesel will lead to more expensive goods. The embargo, then, will add momentum to inflation that is already worrying governments>Perhaps this effect will be temporary, and prices will decline when the new export routes get firmly established—and Europe’s new suppliers get those ramped-up refineries running at full capacity. Or perhaps there’s more energy pain on the horizon for Europe and parts of the United States while economists debate what a recession actually is and whether any of the world’s leading economies are in one.
