中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网1月10日消息称，随着油价再次成为焦点，过去几周有关全球柴油短缺的传言有所缓和，但中间馏分油供应紧张的状况似乎没有改变，贸易商预计供应将继续紧张。事实上，这比石油市场的形势还要严峻。
路透社的John Kemp在其有关石油购买的定期专栏中表示，本周更多交易员看好中馏分油，而非原油。尽管2022年最后一周的柴油销量达到200万桶，但远不及WTI的3000万桶原油销量。
一切都与前景有关。在过去两年里，由于疫情和封锁期间货运需求激增，柴油和其他馏分燃料接近短缺，但生产没有。
随着疫情开始消退和封锁结束，运输需求仍然强劲，特别是货运需求似乎也是如此。航空旅行也开始复苏，被压抑的需求增加了对中间馏分油（除柴油外，还用于制造航空燃料）短缺的担忧。
在美国，去年10月东海岸的柴油和取暖油库存低于正常水平，随着供暖季节的开始，需求即将上升，这让人感到恐慌。幸运的是，供应短缺得以避免，但价格却随之飙升。
该国部分地区的农民也在遭受柴油供应紧张及其导致的价格上涨的影响，尽管他们仍在努力从疫情对该行业的打击中恢复过来。
由于燃料价格上涨，制造业活动和货运活动减少，导致对这些燃料的需求下降。因此，美国馏分燃料库存在10月至11月期间小幅上升，这是一个非常受欢迎的发展。然而，这一数字仍然低于5年同期的平均水平。
随着美国制造业活动在12月连续第二个月下滑，馏分油需求将进一步下降。虽然这样的发展通常是一个令人担忧的原因，但当涉及蒸馏油需求时，更多的是好消息，因为消费量的下降最终可能会导致价格有所缓解。
生产仍是一个大问题，由于这一事实，交易员似乎押注于供应持续紧张。美国和欧洲根本没有足够的炼油能力来快速提高产量，以满足需求水平。正如一些银行业分析师去年在谈到油价时所言，唯一能稳稳拉低油价的方法就是经济衰退。这种方法无疑也适用于蒸馏燃料。
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
Traders Are Betting>Talk of a global diesel shortage subsided in the past few weeks as oil prices>In his regular column>It’s all about the outlook. Diesel and other distillate fuels swung close to a shortage over the past two years as demand for freight transport surged amid the pandemic and the lockdowns, but production didn’t.
As the pandemic began to subside and the lockdowns ended, demand for transportation remained strong and, it seems, so did demand for freight transport specifically. Air travel began to recover, too, with pent-up demand adding to the shortage worry in middle distillates, which, besides diesel, are used to make jet fuel.
In the United States, the East Coast got a scare last October with diesel and heating oil inventories lower than usual and demand about to take off as heating season began. Luckily, a shortage was avoided, but prices soared along with many people’s heating bills.
Farmers in some parts of the country are also suffering the effects of tight diesel supply and the resulting higher prices even as they still try to recover from the blow the industry suffered from the pandemic.
A decline in manufacturing activity and freight transport in response to rising fuel prices has led to a decline in the demand for those fuels. As a result, U.S. distillate fuel inventories inched up between October and November, which was a very welcome development. However, they still remained lower than the five-year average for that time of the year.
With U.S. manufacturing activity marking a decline for the second month in a row in December, distillate fuel demand is set to have declined further with it. While such a development is usually a cause for concern, when it comes to distillate demand, it’s more>Production remains the big problem, and traders appear to be betting on continued tight supply because of this fact. There is simply not enough refining capacity in the U.S. or Europe to ramp up production fast enough to respond to demand levels. As some analysts from the banking industry said last year about oil prices, the only surefire way to bring them down was a recession. The way would no doubt work for distillate fuels, too.
