中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带1月6日报道，美国能源信息署（EIA）最近发布了其年度短期能源展望报告，但这对得克萨斯州意味着什么？
EIA分析指出了天然气产量上升、液化天然气出口增加以及冬季电价高企等趋势。
该报告还认识到，将增加可再生资源在发电中的份额，并明确表示，为了保持可靠性，来自天然气的稳定、可靠的电力将比以往任何时候都更加必要。再加上这些已确定的趋势、地缘政治冲突以及新冠肺炎大流行后的经济反弹，美国能源行业正处于严重的不稳定状态。
不出所料，该报告中确定的一些最显著的趋势涉及天然气。据EIA称，预计2023年美国天然气出口将增加，主要由于该国液化天然气出口预计将进一步增长以及欧洲等地区的需求，这些地区以前依赖产能大国提供能源。
2022年，美国天然气贸易部门经历了各种变化，对产量产生了积极和消极的影响。这包括设施接近最大产能运行以及自由港液化天然气设施发生火灾等因素，导致出口减少20亿立方英尺/天。
总之，EIA报告预测未来一年天然气行业将更加强劲。要据自由港设施，运营将在2023年1月下半月恢复，到3月的运营能力将与以前的产量水平相当。
此外，为了满足欧洲和亚洲对天然气的高需求，美国设施将继续接近最大产能运行。综合这些因素，EIA预计到2023年3月，美国液化天然气出口将打破新纪录，其中大部分来自得克萨斯州。
在分析了EIA的前景后，得克萨斯独立生产商和特许权使用费所有者协会(TIPRO)表示，受二叠纪产量的推动，美国天然气产量将继续攀升。
天然气产量的增加也是短期能源展望报告中确定的另一个重要趋势。总而言之，EIA预测2023年的天然气产量将比2022年增长约2%，在这两种情况下都比大流行水平高出约10%。
TIPRO表示，天然气产量增长的主要驱动因素包括海恩斯维尔地区（包括得克萨斯州东部和路易斯安那州）和二叠纪盆地地区（包括得克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州东南部）的钻井活动增加。
增加管道基础设施的扩建项目也在增加美国天然气产量方面发挥了重要作用。因此，对立法者和监管机构来说，支持扩大美国管道系统以保持进展是很重要的。
EIA承认了这一观点，称“这些项目的完成速度在我们的预测中是一个显著的不确定性，延误可能导致产量低于我们的预期”。如果没有足够的外卖产能，比如新建管道，生产商就无法安全地增加产量，以满足不断增长的需求。
TIPRO还指出，由于能源基础设施不足，冬季的能源价格很高，尤其是在东北部。短期能源展望报告承认冬季电价成本上升，特别是在新英格兰和纽约地区。
据该报告称，1月份，高峰批发电价平均每兆瓦时将超过200美元，较2022年1月上涨35%。因此，该地区即将出现的批发电价平均上涨幅度将显著高于全国其他地区，尤其是得克萨斯州，预计该州的电价上涨幅度在所有地区中最低。
高电价还与管道基础设施的需求有关，以确保美国能够实现其能源安全目标。在东北部和新英格兰地区电价上涨的情况下，缺乏足够的天然气输送系统，导致采用更昂贵的替代品，如进口液化天然气或燃油，以满足需求。
在这些情况下，由于燃油调整条款，昂贵的成本以更高的账单形式转嫁给客户。为了解决这个问题，该地区需要投资管道基础设施，以增加更便宜的燃料，最大限度地减少成本飙升。
TIPRO还声称，可再生能源正在增长，但需要天然气来提供可靠的能源。可再生能源在美国发电组合中的作用增加也是EIA短期能源展望中的一个显著趋势。具体而言，报告预测可再生能源将增加其在发电中的份额。风能和太阳能发电将从2022年的14%增加到2023年的16%，而天然气预计将从39%下降到37%。
但是，由于可再生能源是间歇性的，这意味着这些资源在太阳不亮或风不吹时不能产生能源，我们必须继续扩大对天然气等可靠资源的投资，这些资源可以根据需要产生能源。
最后，TIPRO从EIA报告中得出结论，天然气是美国能源未来的基础。EIA的短期能源展望报告指出了美国能源行业将出现的许多趋势。整个报告明确指出的一点是，天然气将继续在为国家提供能源方面发挥重要作用。
因此，天然气产量和液化天然气出口将继续增加，以满足不断增长的需求。扩大现有管道基础设施是确保美国能够有效提供所需资源的关键。
仅这一原因就是东北部和新英格兰地区批发电价极端的主要原因。美国将需要额外的管道基础设施，以保持生产率上升和价格低廉。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
U.S. LNG Exports To Break New Records By May 2023
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its annual short-term energy outlook report, but what does that mean for Texas?
The EIA analysis identifies trends such as rising natural gas production rates, increasing LNG exports, and high winter electricity prices.
The report also recognized that renewable resources would increase their share of power generation, making it clear that firm, reliable power from natural gas will be more necessary than ever to maintain reliability. In combination with these identified trends, the war, and the economy bouncing back after the Covid-19 pandemic, the United States energy sector is in a serious state of flux.
Unsurprisingly, some of the most notable trends identified in the report involved natural gas. According to the EIA, U.S. natural gas exports are expected to increase in 2023, stemming largely from the nation’s further projected growth in LNG exports and demand from regions like Europe, which had previously relied>In 2022, the U.S. natural gas trade sector experienced a variety of changes that influenced output both positively and negatively. This included factors such as facilities operating near maximum capacity and a fire at the Freeport LNG facility that reduced exports by 2.0 billion cubic feet of product per day (Bcf/d).
Overall, the EIA report forecasted a stronger upcoming year for the natural gas industry. According to the Freeport facility, operations will kick back up in the second half of January 2023 and have an operating capacity comparable to former output levels by March.
Additionally, to meet the high demand for natural gas in Europe and Asia, U.S. facilities will continue to operate near maximum capacity. Combine these factors, and the EIA expects U.S. LNG exports, most of which come from Texas, to break new records by March 2023.
After analyzing EIA’s outlook, the Texas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO) said that the U.S. natural gas production would continue to climb, driven by Permian production.
Increased natural gas production was also another important trend identified in the short-term energy outlook report. In sum, the EIA forecasted natural gas production in 2023 to grow approximately 2 percent more than in 2022, and in both cases about 10 percent more than pandemic levels.
TIPRO stated that the major driver of natural gas production growth includes increased drilling activity in the Haynesville region, which covers East Texas and Louisiana, and the Permian Basin region, which covers West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Expansion projects to increase pipeline infrastructure also played a major role in increasing the U.S. production of natural gas. As such, it is important for lawmakers and regulators to support expanding the U.S. pipeline system to keep>The EIA recognized this notion, stating, “The pace at which these projects are completed is a notable uncertainty in our forecast, and delays could result in lower production than we expect.” Without adequate takeaway capacity, such as new pipelines, producers cannot safely increase production to meet rising demand.
TIPRO also noted that energy prices in the winter are high – particularly in the Northeast – due to inadequate energy infrastructure. The short-term energy outlook report recognized the rising costs of winter electricity prices, particularly in the New England and New York areas.
“On-peak wholesale power prices will average more than $200 per MWh in January, up 35% from January 2022,” according to the report. As a result, the region’s>High electricity prices are also tied to the need for pipeline infrastructure to ensure the United States can achieve its energy security goals. In the case of rising electricity prices in the Northeast and New England regions, lack of adequate natural gas delivery systems are leading to the adoption of more costly alternatives such as imported LNG or fuel oil to meet demand.
In these scenarios, because of fuel adjustment clauses, expensive costs are passed>TIPRO also claimed that renewable energy is growing but will need natural gas to provide reliable energy. Renewable energy’s increased role in the U.S. electric generation mix was also a noted trend in the EIA short-term energy outlook. Specifically, the report projects that renewable power will increase its share of electric generation. Wind and solar power-derived electricity will increase from 14 percent in 2022 to 16 percent in 2023, while natural gas is estimated to drop from 39 percent to 37 percent.
But because renewable power is intermittent, meaning those resources do not generate energy while the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing, we must continue to expand investments in reliable resources like natural gas, which can produce energy as needed.
Finally, TIPRO concluded from the EIA report that natural gas was underpinning America’s energy future. The EIA’s short-term energy outlook identified many trends that it anticipates will emerge in the U.S. energy sector. A clear point indicated throughout the report is the vital role natural gas will continue to play in powering the nation.
As a result, natural gas production and LNG exports will continue to increase to meet rising demand. Expanding the current pipeline infrastructure is key to ensuring the United States can efficiently provide needed resources.
This reason alone is a major cause of the Northeast and New England regions’ extreme wholesale electricity prices. Additional pipeline infrastructure will be needed in the United States to keep production rates rising and prices low.
