中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网1月4日消息称，几年前，美国可能成为世界上最大的液化天然气出口国的想法听起来是不可思议的。然而，去年，它做到了：美国在2022年出口了超过810亿立方米的液化天然气，与卡塔尔一样多。今年它的出口将更多。但这种繁荣可能比许多人预期的更早结束。
几乎没有人预料到美国液化天然气生产商能够填补天然气供应留下的空白，特别是在自由港液化天然气因爆炸而停产后，一直停产到年底。然而，自欧洲供暖季节开始以来的大部分时间里，温和的天气有所帮助，2022年结束时，天然气供应充足。
预计今年欧洲国家的处境将更加艰难，进口的天然气将比去年少得多。即使从美国的进口增加，也可能会出现供应缺口，这很有可能会推高液化天然气价格，破坏更多的需求。这可能最终导致美国液化天然气热潮的破灭。
能源非政府组织能源经济与金融分析研究所（Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis，IEEFA）在最近一篇关于液化天然气出口热潮的文章中写道，我们可以从中吸取一些重要的教训，这些教训可能会对美国液化天然气行业的未来产生重大影响。
一是美国政府在出口激增中发挥了作用。第二个问题是，即使欧洲接受了美国所有的液化天然气，它仍然缺乏能源。第三个教训是，在未能大幅增加产能的情况下，美国LNG交付量的增加是可能的。
另一个教训是，欧洲舒适的液化天然气供应水平是以牺牲亚洲市场为代价的。IEEFA说，人们可以从液化天然气出口模式中得到的最后一个教训可能是最重要的：美国生产商不应依赖欧洲的长期需求。
欧盟对此也持开放态度。几乎每一位欧盟及其成员国政府官员在能源问题上都坚持认为，从长远来看，欧盟将减少对化石燃料的依赖。
去年的情况表明，化石燃料的使用可能会暂时增加——去年欧盟对煤炭的需求也激增——但这似乎并没有动摇欧盟继续减少对石油和天然气依赖的决心。
许多人会争辩说，这种减少在物理上是不可能的，因为像其他地区一样，欧盟需要可靠的能源，而风能和太阳能无法提供。然而，高企的液化天然气价格可能会起到作用，阻碍需求的大幅增长，甚至可能像IEEFA预测的那样导致需求下降。
路透社的Gavin Maguire在最近的一篇专栏中指出，美国向欧盟进口液化天然气一直是欧盟的“生命线和消耗”。他指出，一方面，这些增加的进口确保了足够的天然气储存在冬季。另一方面，它反而掏空了欧洲的口袋。
虽然去年，价格是欧洲天然气买家考虑的最后一件事，他们太专注于寻找足够的天然气来填充储存洞穴，但今年，价格可能会引起更多关注。去年，当15个欧盟成员国迫使欧盟委员会提出进口天然气价格上限的提案时，出现了这样的信号——所有出口商都表示这不是世界上最好的主意。
短期内，美国仍将是欧洲最大的液化天然气供应国。美国公司将继续建设新的液化天然气出口终端，因为包括亚洲在内的大宗商品需求前景一片光明。
曹海斌 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
The LNG Boom Could End With Billions In Stranded Assets
A few years ago, the notion that the United States could become the largest LNG exporter in the world would have sounded fantastical. And yet last year, it did just that: the U.S. exported as much liquefied natural gas as Qatar in 2022, at over 81 billion cu m. And it’s going to export more this year. But the boom may end sooner than many expect.
Few expected that U.S. LNG producers would be able to fill the gap left by gas, especially after Freeport LNG went offline following an explosion, remaining offline until the end of the year. Yet mild weather for most of the time since the start of heating season in Europe helped, and it ended 2022 with sufficient gas supply.
This year is expected to be even tougher>The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, an energy NGO, wrote in a recent piece>One was that the Administration played>Another lesson was that Europe’s comfortable LNG supply levels came at the expense of Asia. The last lesson that the IEEFA said>The European Union has been open about this, too. Virtually every EU and member state government official with anything to say about energy has stuck to the transition scenario that sees the EU reducing its dependence>Last year has shown that there could be obstacles that might temporarily increase the use of fossil fuels—coal demand from the EU also surged last year—but this does not appear to have shaken the EU’s resolve to continue reducing its dependence>Many would argue that this reduction is physically impossible because, like every other region, the EU needs reliable energy, and wind and solar cannot supply it. Yet high LNG prices could do the trick and deter major demand growth, perhaps even leading to a demand decline as the IEEFA projects.
Reuters’ Gavin Maguire noted in a recent column that U.S. LNG imports into the EU have been “both a lifeline and a drain” for the bloc.>While last year, prices were the last thing European gas buyers were thinking about, too preoccupied with just finding enough gas to fill storage caverns, this year, prices may draw more attention. Signals of this came last year when 15 EU member states forced the Commission to come up with a proposal for a price cap>Over the short term, the U.S. will remain Europe’s top LNG supplier. U.S. companies will continue building new LNG export terminals amid a bright demand outlook for the commodity, including in Asia.
