全球月度石油产量在2018年11月达到峰值，现在真正的问题是全球石油产量是否会再次达到这一高度
支出纪律和监管障碍的结合似乎已经结束了页岩热潮，但页岩产量增长很可能已经放缓
过去有很多关于“石油峰值”的预测，但随着监管阻力的增加，美国页岩产业正在消亡，以及一级探区面积的减少，这真的有可能
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年1月1日报道，在疫情导致的世界石油产量下滑之前，美国石油产量增长占2018年世界石油产量增长的98%(如2019年报告的那样)。几乎所有的增长都来自页岩油产量的快速增长，截至2021年，页岩油产量占美国石油总产量的64%。快进到今天，现有迹象是否预示着“美国页岩热潮正式结束”。主要原因是管理层对资本支出的“纪律”有利于股东的支出，以及对“反石油言论”和“监管不确定性”的抱怨。
但美国页岩油产量放缓可能还有另一个原因：地下开采出来页岩油并不像宣传的那么多。地球科学家大卫·休斯在他的《2021年页岩现实检查》一书中阐述了这一观点。
全球可能会有其他石油来源，以某种方式弥补美国页岩油产量增长显著放缓的影响。但似乎没有其他来源能提供像美国页岩油那样的增长，也就是说，从2008年到2018年，美国页岩油占全球石油产量增长的73.2%。
一段时间以来，世界石油产量一直在减少。2018年11月，世界石油日产量(包括凝析油在内的原油)达到了8458万桶的月度峰值。2022年8月，世界石油日产量为8144万桶。此前，一场疫情引发的冲击导致世界石油日产量在2020年6月降至7028万桶。
美国页岩油公司和欧佩克似乎都没有准备好大幅增加石油产量(假设他们可以的话)。产能大国是世界三大石油生产国之一，目前正受到严厉制裁，短期内可能无法生产更多石油用于出口。同样，该国能否大幅增加石油产量也不确定。除了疫情大流行导致的产量下降外，产能大国的石油日产量长期处于1000万至1100万桶的停滞不前的水平。
毫无疑问，不久将会有新的石油救星出现，无论是否可信。与此同时，世界经济将面临有限的石油供应，这些石油供应不能简单地满足我们对需求的幻想。其结果将是高价格，也就是说，高于历史上的情况。经济衰退不会改变这种动态，事实上，可能会加强这种动态，因为当石油需求下降时，石油公司可能会减少钻井活动。这将使这些公司更加难以满足走出下一次衰退后全球不断增长的需求。
事情很可能会在很长一段时间内(如果不是无限期的话)都是这样。许多预见到这一天的人都说，我们只能在后视镜中看到世界石油产量达到峰值。可能还需要几年时间才能确定2018年11月是否为历史峰值。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Can Global Oil Production Climb If The U.S. Shale Boom Is Over?
· Global monthly oil production peaked>· A combination of spending discipline and regulatory hurdles appears to have ended the shale boom, but shale production growth may well have slowed anyway.
· There have been plenty of ‘peak oil’ predictions in the past, but with growing regulatory resistance, the death of U.S. shale, and less tier-one acreage, this really could be it.
Prior to the pandemic-induced downturn in world oil production, U.S. oil production growth was responsible for 98 percent of the increase in world production in 2018 (as reported in 2019). Almost all of that growth resulted from rapid increases in shale oil production which accounted for 64 percent of U.S. production (as of 2021).
Fast forward to today when Oilprice.com has declared that "The U.S. Shale Boom Is Officially Over." The reasons cited mostly have to do with management "discipline" regarding capital expenditure in favor of shareholder payouts and complaints about "anti-oil rhetoric" and "regulatory uncertainty."
But there might just be another reason for the slowdown in shale oil production in the United States: There isn't as much accessible and economical shale oil underground as advertised. Earth scientist David Hughes laid out his case for this view in his "Shale Reality Check 2021."
There may be other sources of oil worldwide that will somehow make up for the significantly lower growth in U.S. shale oil production. But no other source seems set to provide the kind of growth U.S. shale oil provided, that is, 73.2 percent of the global increase in oil production from 2008 through 2018.
The world has actually been getting along with less oil for some time now. World oil production proper (crude oil including lease condensate) peaked>Neither the U.S. shale oil companies nor OPEC seem ready to increase production significantly (assuming that they can).The country, among the world's top three producers, is under heavy sanction and may not be able to produce more oil for export anytime soon. (Again, it is not certain that it can significantly increase production. Except for the pandemic-induced drop it has long been>No doubt some new oil savior will be announced soon whether credible or not. In the meantime, the world economy will be faced with limited oil supplies that do not simply grow to meet our fantasies of what we want. The result will be high prices, that is, higher than has been historically the case. A recession won't change this dynamic and, in fact, may reinforce it as oil companies are likely to reduce drilling activity when demand for oil slumps. That will make it doubly difficult for those companies to supply growing demand coming out of the next recession.
This is the way things might very well be for a long time if not indefinitely. Many of us who foresaw this day said that we would only see peak world oil production in the rearview mirror. It may take a few more years to determine if November 2018 marked the all-time peak.
