几位投资银行分析师表示，最近的原油价格暴跌可能并不能预示石油市场将会发生什么
自2015年-2018年以来，欧佩克的原油日产量一直没有超过3000万桶
对新石油供应的结构性投资不足可能导致原油价格结构性上涨
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网12月18日报道，欧佩克在其最新的月度报告中透露，欧佩克11月份的原油产量再次未能达到上次讨论产量时同意的产量目标。而且也不是每天短缺几千桶。缺口大约为每天180万桶，但更重要的是，这种低于自己目标的情况已经成为欧佩克的常态。与此同时，美国联邦政府今年迄今已从战略石油储备中释放了近2亿桶原油，以应对燃料价格通胀，因此现在需要为其战略石油储备购买一些原油。然而，美国钻井公司并不急于提高原油产量。相反，产量增长似乎已不再是这些钻井公司的首要任务。
当然，还有制裁，许多人预计这将损害产能大国的石油生产，这很可能会发生全球石油供应紧张。事实上，石油制裁——以海上原油出口价格上限和对欧盟出口禁运的形式——对流出的石油没有任何影响。
投资银行预计油价将会上涨，尽管全球经济增长放缓的预期导致油价近期大幅下跌。这种预期现在也开始渗入交易商圈子。但他们也可能考虑到石油仍然是一种不可或缺的商品。而且，廉价原油的时代很可能已一去不复返。
摩根士丹利本周在一份报告中表示：“由于投资水平低、供应面临风险、美国战略石油储备释放结束以及美国页岩油产量放缓，导致全球供应受限，全球需求复苏(航空业复苏)，我们对油价保持乐观。”
然而，正如TortoiseEcoFin总裁兼投资组合经理Matt Sallee在最近的市场评论中指出的那样，全球供应方面的实际情况可能要严重得多。
“全球石油库存处于2004年以来的最低水平，美国能源部今年已从战略石油储备中释放了近2亿桶原油，欧佩克继续努力生产其规定的配额，美国生产商正在提供帮助，但他们也只能做这么多。”
这是对全球石油供应状况的一种非常简洁的描述，但这种情况并不会引起积极的情绪。这是一个更有可能引起关注的问题，而且是有充分理由的关注。因为几乎没有证据表明这些趋势会在短期内发生有意义的变化。
Sallee在油价网的后续评论中指出，以欧佩克为例，它没有任何试图提高原油产量的动机。只有当它知道油价将在较长一段时间内保持在每桶100美元以上时，它才会这么做，但目前还没有办法对这一点充满信心。
此外，欧佩克的产量还受到纯粹的物理限制，该组织一直未能实现自己的减产目标就是明证。大多数欧佩克成员国都有雄心勃勃的产量增长计划，但由于成熟油田产量的自然递减和最终投资不足等原因，实际产量仍然低迷。
正如Sallee所指出的那样，自2015-2018年以来，欧佩克的原油日产量一直没有超过3000万桶，当时欧佩克故意这样做是为了摧毁美国的页岩行业，并且在很大程度上暂时获得成功。
至少从白宫的角度来看，投资不足也正成为美国页岩领域的一个问题。根据美国政府的说法，美国生产商需要做的就是增加生产支出。根据美国石油生产商自己的说法，投资增加石油产量的长期前景很不确定。
此外还有主要探区的问题，几位专家一直警告说，探区面积正在枯竭。Sallee就是其中一位这样认为的专家，他认为：“最好的探区已经钻探完，该行业正在努力吸引劳动力，而融资来源有限。”
根据他的说法，美国石油产量不太可能再像最近那样以每天100万桶或更多的速度增长。他认为，50万至75万桶/天的增长率更有可能。这对消费者来说不是好消息，因为尽管能源转型阵营瞄准了需求，但需求不会很快下降。
作为能源转型运动中最活跃的成员之一，国际能源署在其最新的石油市场报告中上调了对明年全球石油需求增长的预测，原因是今年的消费出现意外增长。
在没有可行的石油产品替代品的情况下，这可能是一个可持续的趋势。这意味着未来的供需将处于不稳定的平衡状态，如果石油巨头继续转向低碳能源，市场就会不断处于短缺的边缘，甚至严重短缺，因为这要求他们减少石油产量以实现净零目标。这一切意味着，廉价原油的时代很可能已经永远结束。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
The Era Of Cheap Oil Has Come To An End
· The recent crude price slump may not be indicative for what is to come in oil markets according to several investment bank analysts.
· OPEC has not consistently produced more than 30 million bpd since 2015-2018.
· Structural underinvestment in new oil supply may lead to structurally higher prices.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC revealed it had yet again failed to produce as much oil as it agreed to produce the last time it discussed output. And it wasn’t by a few thousand barrels per day, either. The shortfall was some 1.8 million barrels daily, but more importantly, that sort of undershooting of its own target has become a regular thing for the cartel. Meanwhile, the United States federal government needs to buy some oil for its strategic petroleum reserve after releasing close to 200 million barrels from it this year as a way of countering fuel price inflation. Yet U.S. drillers are not in a rush to boost production.>Of course, there are also the sanctions, which many expect will hurt the country’s oil production, and that may well happen, but it has not happened yet. In fact, the oil sanctions—in the form of a price cap>Investment banks expect higher oil prices, despite a recent slump prompted by expectations of an economic slowdown pretty much across the globe. The expectations, now beginning to seep into trader circles. But they also probably take into account the fact that oil remains an indispensable commodity. And the era of cheap oil may well be over for good.
“We remain constructive>Yet the situation may be a lot more serious with regard to supply, as noted in a recent market commentary by TortoiseEcoFin’s President and Portfolio Manager, Matt Sallee.
“Global oil inventory is at the lowest level since 2004, the Department of Energy has released 200 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this year, OPEC continues to struggle to produce at their stated quota and US producers are helping but can>This s a pretty succinct description of the global oil supply situation, but the picture is not>OPEC, for example, has zero motivation to try and boost production, Sallee noted in follow-up comments for Oilprice. It would>Then there are the purely physical constraints>As Sallee notes, OPEC has not consistently produced more than 30 million bpd since 2015-2018 when it did so deliberately in a bid to destroy U.S. shale and, to a great extent, succeeded, temporarily. And that’s because it neither wants to nor can it do so.
Underinvestment is turning into a thing in U.S. shale as well, at least from the perspective of the White House. According to the Administration, all U.S. producers need to do is spend more>Then there is the issue of prime acreage, which several experts have been warning is running out. TortoiseEcoFin’s Sallee is among them: “Best acreage has been drilled, the industry is struggling to attract labor and has limited sources of financing,” he told Oilprice.
According to him, U.S. oil production is unlikely to ever again record annual output increase rates of 1 million bpd or more, as it did in the recent past. A growth rate of 500,000 to 750,000 bpd is far more likely, he believes. And that’s not good news for consumers because demand, although targeted by the energy transition camp, is not going down soon.
The International Energy Agency,>Chances are this is a sustainable trend in the absence of viable alternatives to oil products. And this means that demand and supply will be in a precarious balance in the future, constantly on the brink of a shortage or even deep in a shortage, should Big Oil’s pivot to low-carbon energy continue, as it requires they reduce their oil production to hit their net-zero goals. What all this means is that the era of cheap crude oil may well be over for good.
